DCF 现金流贴现模型 Excel模版(dcf 估值模型)

Terminal Discount Rate = 10.0%

Terminal FCF Growth = 4.0%

Forecast Terminal

Year

2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Value Revenue

172,936 191,444 210,646 229,604 250,269 270,290 291,913 309,428 327,994 344,393 361,613 % Growth

n/a.10.7%10.0%9.0%9.0%8.0%8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0%Operating Income (EBIT)

49,510 55,040 59,611 64,289 70,075 75,681 81,736 86,640 91,838 96,430 101,252 Operating Margin

28.6%28.7%28.3%28.0%28.0%28.0%28.0%28.0%28.0%28.0%28.0%Interest and Other- net

(22,482) (23,930) (25,278) (27,552) (30,032) (32,435) (35,030) (37,131) (39,359) (41,327) (43,394) Interest % of Sales

-13.0%-12.5%-12.0%-12.0%-12.0%-12.0%-12.0%-12.0%-12.0%-12.0%-12.0%Taxes

3,200 5,289 5,837 6,245 6,807 7,352 7,940 8,416 8,921 9,367 9,836 Tax Rate

15.5%17.5%17.0%17.0%17.0%17.0%17.0%17.0%17.0%17.0%17.0%Minority Interest

(692) (766) (843) (918) (1,001) (1,081) (1,168) (1,238) (1,312) (1,378) (1,446) Discontinued Ops.

(346) (191) (211) (211) (211) (211) (211) (211) (211) (211) (211) Net Income

22,791 24,864 27,443 29,362 32,024 34,603 37,388 39,644 42,035 44,147 46,365 % Growth

n/a.9.1%10.4%7.0%9.1%8.1%8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0%Add Depreciation/Amort

10,37611,48712,63913,77615,01616,21717,51518,56619,68020,66421,697% of Sales

6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%Plus/(minus) Changes WC

199-370-384-1,148-1,251-1,351-1,460-1,547-1,640-1,722-1,808% of Sales

0.12%-0.19%-0.18%-0.50%-0.50%-0.50%-0.50%-0.50%-0.50%-0.50%-0.50%Subtract CapEx

17,87717,23018,95820,66422,52421,62323,35324,75426,23927,55128,929CapEx % of sales

10.3%9.0%9.0%9.0%9.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%8.0%Free Cash Flow

15,48918,75020,74021,32623,26527,84530,09031,90833,83535,53737,325YoY growth

n/a.21%11%3%9%20%8%6%6%5%5%Terminal Value

646,963 Terminal: 646,963 NPV of free cash flows

161,993 44%P/E: 14.0 NPV of terminal value

206,142 56%EV/EBITDA: 8.7 Projected Equity Value

368,136 Free Cash Yield: 5.77%Free Cash Flow Yield

4.21%Shares Outstanding

10,415 M *Sensitivity Matrix Current Price

*Avg. Jan 2008 (range $33.2~ 36.8)

Implied equity value/ share

Upside/(Downside) to DCF

…… Implied Equity Value …… Upside (Downside)Total Debt

$491,623M Total Cash

$65,057M Cash / share 6.25