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2001-Making Low probabilities Useful

2001-Making Low probabilities Useful
2001-Making Low probabilities Useful

The Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,23:2;103–120,2001

?2001Kluwer Academic Publishers.Manufactured in The Netherlands. Making Low Probabilities Useful?

HOW ARD KUNREUTHER

OPIM Department,Wharton School,University of Pennsylvania,Philadelphia,PA

NATHAN NOVEMSKY

School of Management,Yale University,New Haven,CT

DANIEL KAHNEMAN

Department of Psychology and Woodrow Wilson School,Princeton University,Princeton,NJ

Abstract

This paper explores how people process information on low probability-high consequence negative events and what it will take to get individuals to be sensitive to the likelihood of these types of accidents or disasters. In a set of experiments,information is presented to individuals on the likelihood of serious accidents from a chemical https://www.sodocs.net/doc/c815195478.html,parisons are made with other risks,such as fatalities from automobile accidents,to see whether laypersons can determine the relative safety of different plants.We conclude that fairly rich context information must be available for people to be able to judge differences between low probabilities.In particular, it appears that one needs to present comparison scenarios that are located on the probability scale to evoke people’s own feelings of risk.The concept of evaluability recently introduced by Hsee and his colleagues provides a useful explanation of these?ndings.

Keywords:low probabilities,insurance,?eld experiment

JEL Classi?cation:C93,D8,D18

1.Introduction

Disasters,such as the explosion at the Union Carbide plant in Bhopal,India in1984, have sensitized the public to the potential dangers from chemical facilities even though the likelihood of such accidents is extremely small.This concern with the impact of major accidental chemical releases can be illustrated by Congressional passage of the Clean Air Act Amendments(CAAA)of1990.In implementing one of the provisions of the CAAA(Section112R),the U.S.Environmental Protection Agency(EPA)requires chemical facilities to develop and implement risk management programs for preventing the occurrence of such releases and sharing these prevention plans with the public(Er et al.,1998).

?Partial support from NSF Grant#524603is gratefully acknowledged.

104KUNREUTHER,NOVEMSKY AND KAHNEMAN This paper explores whether one can present information to people on the likelihood of serious accidents from a chemical facility so they can determine the relative safety of different plants.One possible way to do this is to vary the probabilities of an accident to see if this makes a difference in people’s risk perception.Another way is to vary the insurance premium that the?rm has to pay to protect itself against the event.One can present this information on just the chemical accident itself or compare this event with others.

If one can provide data in a form that enables people to comprehend the risks they face,then it may be possible to encourage?rms to take preventive action through public pressure.One may also want to utilize economic incentives,such as lower insurance pre-miums to encourage?rms to reduce their risk and/or impose standards through required third party inspections.

Insurance is often available to reduce?nancial losses from low probability-high con-sequence events.Consumers have experience in making decisions on their homeowners coverage as well as their automobile policies.They also face decisions as to whether to adopt protective measures ranging from dead-bolt locks to car alarms to product war-ranties.There is evidence that many people are not able to meaningfully use probability information in these contexts(Hogarth and Kunreuther,1995).By making low probabil-ities meaningful to individuals,they can choose the appropriate level of protection for various risks.

The next section discusses related research in the area of low probability-high conse-quence events.Section3provides evidence from a set of experiments designed to exam-ine risk perceptions regarding the safety of a chemical plant.In these studies changes in the likelihood of an accident are expressed through either differences in probability or insurance premiums.The concluding section discusses the policy implications of these ?ndings and suggests directions for future research.

2.Earlier studies on low probability-high consequence events

Anumber of published studies reveal the dif?culties people have in interpreting low probabilities when faced with personal risks(Camerer and Kunreuther,1989;Magat, Viscusi,and Huber,1987).In fact,there is evidence that people may not even want data on the likelihood of an event occurring.In a recent study of several hypothetical risky managerial decisions,Huber,Wider,and Huber(1997)?nd that when subjects are required to search out their own information,they rarely ask for any data on probabilities. One group was given a minimal description and the opportunity to ask questions.Only 22%of these respondents asked for probability information.Not one of these respon-dents asked for precise probabilities.Another group of respondents was given precise probability information,and less than20%of these respondents mentioned the word “probability”or“likelihood”in their verbal protocols.

Hogarth and Kunreuther(1995)studied the decision process related to the purchase of warranties against the failure of durable consumer products such as stereos,computers, and VCRs.They asked individuals to specify the arguments they utilized to justify their

MAKING LOW PROBABILITIES USEFUL105 choice and found that people rarely list probability that the item needs repair as a reason for purchasing this protection.

Other research has demonstrated that there are ways of reframing the probability of an event occurring that will cause people to use this information in deciding how much to pay for protection.Stone,Yates,and Parker(1994)?nd that people pay considerably more to reduce the risk of some adverse event if the likelihood is depicted as ratios of very small probabilities(e.g.the risk of an event occurring when one is protected is half of what it is when one is not protected)than if people are presented with two small probabilities(e.g..000006probability without protection and.000003with protection). Slovic,Fischhoff,and Lichtenstein(1978)?nd more interest in wearing seatbelts if the chance of an accident is framed over a50year lifetime of driving(.33)rather than as a .00001chance each trip.Arecent study by Weinstein,Kolb,and G oldstein(1996)found that re-framing the probability of death as the time interval during which a single death is expected can affect risk perceptions.

There is also evidence that absolute probabilities seem to be edited to“a very small number”or zero for some individuals.In a laboratory experiment on purchasing insur-ance,McClelland,Schulze,and Coursey(1993)found that many individuals bid zero for coverage.This implies that these respondents viewed the probability of a loss as suf-?ciently small that they were not interested in protecting themselves against it.Studies associated with siting hazardous facilities arrive at a similar conclusion.For example, many homeowners residing in communities that are potential sites for nuclear waste facilities have a tendency to dismiss the risk as negligible(Oberholzer-Gee,1998). The notion of evaluability recently introduced by Hsee and his colleagues(Hsee,1996; Hsee et al.,1999)offers some insight into why so many studies?nd that people have dif?culty interpreting low probabilities.According to the evaluability hypothesis,if an attribute is hard to evaluate independently then a person does not know how good a given value of the attribute is without making comparisons that are meaningful to him or her.

People given low probabilities associated with some event may not know how to eval-uate these likelihoods.It is dif?cult to gauge how concerned one should feel about a1in 100,000probability of death without some comparison points.Most people just do not know whether1in100,000is a large risk or a small risk.As we will show below,indi-viduals are much better able to evaluate probabilities when they are able to use speci?c comparison information.

3.Judging the safety of chemical facilities

We report on?ve studies that were undertaken to determine how people judge the safety of a chemical facility after learning either about the probability of an accident releasing a toxic chemical or the actuarially fair insurance premium for providing coverage to the chemical plant to cover the costs of a chemical release.In Study1,we try to make low probability events more evaluable in two ways.First,we include a comparison point by telling respondents the probability of death from a car accident.Second,we provide

106KUNREUTHER,NOVEMSKY AND KAHNEMAN some respondents with data on insurance premiums instead of probabilities.Our feeling was that people have a lot of experience with insurance premiums and are very familiar with the dollar scale.Therefore,we hypothesized that insurance premiums would be more evaluable than small probabilities.We were mistaken.

Study1

In this study individuals were presented with either a probability or an insurance premium related to the discharge of a hypothetical toxic chemical,Syntox,which had the potential of causing fatalities to individuals living near the plant.The participants in the experiment were then asked a set of questions regarding their perception of the risk posed by the facility.The questionnaire was completed by241adult visitors to the San Francisco Exploratorium in July,1998.

Each respondent saw the following scenario about a chemical plant:

The ABC Chemicals Company is a large?rm that has a plant in a community on the outskirts of an urban center in New Jersey.Achemical labeled Syntox,used in production at the plant,will be regulated under the Environmental Protection Agency’s Clean Air Act Amendments.Syntox is the only toxic chemical used at the plant.As is required in the regulations,ABC Chemicals has determined that the worst conceivable accident at the plant would occur if its entire inventory of Syntox were accidentally released into the atmosphere in a very short time period.If this did occur,a plume of toxic vapors would form that could cover any home in the community,depending on how the wind blows.This vapor would only affect a few homes in the community.

An insurance company has estimated the probability of a discharge of Syntox caus-ing deaths in the community surrounding the plant.The insurance company made the risk assessment to determine what premium it should charge ABC Chemicals to provide$1million coverage to each resident of the community against death from the discharge of Syntox.Insurance companies charge a higher premium to cover an individual if they believe the risk the individual faces is high;they charge a lower premium if they believe the risk is low.

Half of the respondents then read one of three scenarios as shown by the probability ?gures speci?ed in brackets[]for a discharge of Syntox:

As background for assessing the risks of Syntox,the probability of an individual dying in a car accident is1in6,000per year.

The estimated probability of an individual in the community dying from a discharge of Syntox is[1in1million per year or1in100,000or1in10million].

Aregulatory agency has determined that for both car accidents and Syntox dis-charges,these probability estimates are accurate.

MAKING LOW PROBABILITIES USEFUL107

Table1.Probabilities and insurance premiums for Study1

High Medium Low

Probabilities1in100,0001in1million1in10million

Premiums$15.00$1.5015cents

The other respondents read one of three scenarios as shown by the insurance premium ?gures speci?ed in brackets[]:

As background for assessing the risks of Syntox,a fair premium for providing $1million coverage against each death in a car accident is$245per year.

Apremium of[15cents or$1.50or$15.00]per year for each resident of the com-munity is the fair and appropriate one to charge for providing$1million coverage against each death from a discharge of Syntox.

Aregulatory agency has determined that for both car accidents and Syntox dis-charges,these premiums are fair and appropriate.

Each respondent saw only one value,either a premium or a probability for the chemical plant.Table1summarizes the values for the low,medium and high probabilities and premiums for this study.

Following the scenario subjects were asked a set of questions on how risky the chemical plant appeared to be and its relationship to other risks that individuals face such as car accidents,home?res and food disease.(The questions appear in the Appendix.)Four questions were asked about the perceived risk of the chemical facility:(1)whether the plant posed a serious health and safety risk to those living in the community,(2)whether the plant could operate in a manner that was safe for the community,(3)how serious is the risk of death posed by the plant,and(4)how close to the plant respondents would be willing to live.

Results.Since the responses to these four questions were highly intercorrelated( = 81), they were combined into a single scale.The score for each respondent represents his or her overall perception of the risk of the chemical plant.This score was scaled to range between1(lowest risk)to5(highest risk).Two one-way ANOV As were performed on the scaled scores,one for the three groups of probability responses and a separate anal-ysis for the responses to the three insurance premiums.As shown in Table2neither the means for the three probability conditions nor the means of the insurance premi-ums were signi?cantly different from each other[Probability conditions(F(2,119)=

Table2.Mean perception of risk of chemical plant for

different probabilities and insurance premiums associ-

ated with chemical accident(Study1)

High Medium Low

Probabilities 3.03 2.93 3.01

Premiums 2.81 2.74 3.12

108KUNREUTHER,NOVEMSKY AND KAHNEMAN .153,ns);Insurance premium conditions:(F(2,116)=1.58,ns)].In fact,the premiums are not even monotonic as one would expect them to be.

Conclusions.The two main?ndings from Study1can be summarized as follows.First, people seem unresponsive to changes in the order of magnitude of a low probability. This occurred despite the comparison point they were given for automobile accidents. One explanation for this insensitivity is that the absolute numbers for the release of Syntox may have been too far from the comparison point for automobile accidents.All conditions used probabilities less than one tenth the value for automobiles,so respondents may have seen the risks from the chemical plant as“much lower than car travel.”The second key?nding is that people do not respond to insurance premiums as a signal for the risk associated with a chemical plant.This is somewhat more surprising since most people are familiar with insurance policies and should know that premiums tend to re?ect risk.Many people are required to purchase automobile insurance and are aware that premiums?uctuate with the age of drivers and with accidents and traf?c tickets. People are also very familiar with the dollar scale.While they may not be able to think meaningfully about what a1in100,000chance of death means,they certainly know what$15.00means.However,the premiums for the chemical plant are all less than one tenth of the premiums given for automobile accidents.People may think that any risk smaller than the risk associated with driving in a car is safe enough,and thus they do not distinguish between small premiums.

Study2

To test whether the values used in Study1are all too small relative to the comparison point,all the values associated with the release of Syntox are increased in Study2.The highest value is now approximately one order of magnitude above the comparison point, the middle value is around the comparison point and the lowest value is an order of magnitude below the comparison point.In other words,some respondents would see the risk of a Syntox release as being more probable than car accidents,others would see the risk as similar to car accidents and a third group would see the risk as less probable than car accidents.Our expectation was that these differences would sensitize respondents to the risk differences associated with the release of Syntox.This study was embedded in a short set of studies completed by175adult visitors to the San Francisco Exploratorium. The values utilized in the study are shown in Table3.There were six different groups, with each respondent seeing only one value for the chemical plant.

Table3.Probabilities and insurance premiums for Study2

Comparison value

High Medium Low for car accidents

Probabilities1in6501in63001in68,0001in6000

Premiums$2170$241$23$245

MAKING LOW PROBABILITIES USEFUL109

Table4.Mean perception of risk of chemical plant for

different probabilities and insurance premiums associ-

ated with chemical accident(Study2)

High Medium Low

Premiums 3.52 3.65 3.05

Probabilities 3.61 3.47 3.07

Results.As in Study1,the four risk questions were combined into a single scale ( = 76).The results are shown in Table4.Two separate one-way ANOV As were performed on the scaled scores,one for responses in the probability conditions and one for responses in the premium conditions.The premium conditions yielded?ndings that to our surprise were similar to those of Study1,with the means not differing signi?-cantly between high,medium and low conditions.(F(2,58)=2.07,ns).Furthermore, these means do not decrease monotonically with the premium.In the probability condi-tions the mean scores decrease monotonically from high to medium to low probabilities but the differences are not statistically signi?cant(F(2,49)=2.82,p=.069).

Conclusions.Study2replicates the insensitivity found in Study1.Clearly respondents are not feeling much safer when they see a probability or insurance premium ten times below the value for car travel than when they see a value ten times higher than car travel. It is possible that people do not think probabilities or premiums are relevant to the risk posed by a chemical plant.Perhaps the fact that someone may die from a Syntox release is the only information that people feel is relevant for evaluating this risk.It appears that no attention is paid to the likelihood of this event occurring whether expressed in terms of probabilities or insurance premiums.

Study3

In the?rst two studies respondents considered one chemical plant with a single prob-ability or premium.Study3gives people the opportunity to compare either the three probabilities or the three insurance premiums.We did this for two reasons:(1)to exam-ine whether respondents think probabilities and/or insurance premiums should affect their risk perception and(2)to make sure people are able to differentiate between the values we are using.Each respondent was presented with either three probabilities or three insurance premiums associated with three different chemical plants and asked to judge the risks for each of the plants.This study was embedded in a short set of studies completed by57adult visitors to the San Francisco Exploratorium. Respondents saw the same scenarios used in Studies1and2,but this time were told that there are three chemical plants that use the Syntox chemical.The communities in which each plant is located are similar to each other.The probabilities and premiums were identical to the ones used in Study2.In other words,the values used in Study3 correspond to those displayed in Table3.1

110KUNREUTHER,NOVEMSKY AND KAHNEMAN

Table5.Mean perception of risk of chemical plant for

different probabilities and insurance premiums associ-

ated with chemical accidents(Study3)

High Medium Low

Probabilities 4.64 3.84 2.78

Premiums 4.50 3.82 2.97

Since respondents were asked questions about all three chemical plants,we only used a subset of our previous questions to limit the length of the questionnaire.More speci?cally,respondents were asked(1)whether the plant posed a serious health and safety risk to those living in the community,(2)how serious is the risk of death posed by the plant,and(3)how close to the plant respondents would be willing to live.

Results.Each set of three questions was combined into a scale,yielding one score for each plant for each respondent.(The reliability( )ranged from.51to.72,for the three plants.)Table5shows the mean scores for each level of probability and premium.A repeated-measures ANOV A reveals that the effect of probability is highly signi?cant (F(2,34)=32.0,p<.001).Aseparate repeated-measures A NOV Arevealed that insur-ance premiums also had a highly signi?cant effect(F(2,62)=42.9,p<.001).

The differences found in this within-respondent sample can be compared to the earlier studies by examining Figure1.The mean differences in Study3dwarf any differences found in Studies1and2.

Figure1.Differences in mean risk score for different probabilities and premiums(Studies1–3).

MAKING LOW PROBABILITIES USEFUL111 Conclusions.The results of Study3con?rm that people?nd both insurance premiums and probabilities relevant to risk evaluations.If people thought these objective measures of likelihood should not matter,they would have responded with similar risk perceptions for all three plants.Study3also shows that the values we chose are suf?ciently different from each other for our scale to measure the resulting differences in risk perception. When faced with a single chemical plant to evaluate,respondents may not have paid any attention to the probabilities and insurance premiums we gave them.Study3high-lights these values by asking each person to evaluate several plants that vary only in this measure of risk.When respondents ask themselves what is the difference between the three plants,their attention is likely to be focused on the numerical value of probability or insurance premium.The results of this study will be treated as an upper bound on the sensitivity that we can expect from evaluations of a single plant.

Study4

One reason that individuals may have a dif?cult time responding to probabilities or insurance premiums in Studies1and2is that the comparison point was not meaningful enough to help respondents map probabilities and premiums onto feelings of riskiness. For example,when respondents are given a single probability(or premium)for the chemical plant that is ten times better than car travel,they may still ask themselves,“How safe is car travel?”Providing people with a comparison point that is easier to interpret may help them evaluate the meaning of the chemical plant value.

Study4was designed to address this issue by giving respondents a single chemical plant to evaluate,and providing a qualitative description to associate with the probability or premium comparison value being considered.Respondents in this study read a few sentences describing driving conditions in Colorado that sound as if the roads were somewhat unsafe.This level of risk is then linked to a probability(or premium,depending on the group).Furthermore,a safer set of driving conditions in Arizona is described and linked to a different probability(or premium)value.After reading this information, respondents should have a better understanding of how probabilities or premiums can signal risk.

Our interest was in seeing whether providing respondents with a description of high and low probability automobile accident scenarios would enable them to distinguish between the risks associated with a Syntox release as one varied either the probability of such a chemical accident or the insurance premiums that the ABC chemicals plant had to pay.This study sampled216adult visitors to the San Francisco Exploratorium. Each respondent saw the same scenario used in Studies1and2.Three probabilities and three premiums were used resulting in six different groups of respondents.The probabilities and premiums are displayed in Table6.One change was made to the auto accident scenario;the single sentence describing the risk of car accidents was replaced with the following paragraph in the probability condition:

For comparison purposes,consider a small town in the mountains of Colorado where there is snow cover for a few months every year and the mountain roads have sharp

112KUNREUTHER,NOVEMSKY AND KAHNEMAN

Table6.Probability and insurance premium values used in Study4

Comparison values

High Medium Low for car accidents

Probabilities1in6501in63001in68,0001in5900,Colorado

1in66,000,Arizona

Premiums$2170$241$23$280,Colorado

$36,Arizona

curves.For a driver in this town,the estimated probability of his or her death from

a car accident is1in5900per year.For a driver in a similar size town in Arizona

where it rarely rains,never snows and the roads have very few sharp curves,the estimated probability of his or her death from a car accident is1in66,000per year. Those in the premium condition saw the same paragraph with probabilities replaced by annual premiums of$280for drivers in Colorado and$36for drivers in Arizona. Results.The four questions measuring risk were again combined into one scale( = 81). The means are shown in Table7.Again,separate one-way ANOV As were performed on the probability and premium conditions.The effects of probability(F(2,101)=26.2, p<.001)and premium(F(2,103)=7.30,p=.001)are highly signi?cant.Looking at Figure2,we can see that the sizes of the differences in this study are only slightly smaller than those found in Study3.

Conclusions.Study4provides evidence that people’s dif?culty in evaluating the prob-ability and premium numbers in Study2lead to the insensitivity to those values.When respondents are shown how qualitative feelings of risk are associated with different numerical values on a quantitative scale,they are willing and able to respond to a spe-ci?c value on that scale.Respondents saw a single probability or a single insurance premium for the chemical plant and were able to associate that number with a measure of perceived risk.

Study5

Study4still leaves one with some ambiguity.Are people more sensitive to the scales simply because we gave them a description that evoked a sense of risk?Or is it because they were shown two comparison points on the scale instead of just one?Hsee et al.

Table7.Mean perception of risk of chemical plant for different probabili-

ties and insurance premiums associated with chemical accidents(Study4)

High Medium Low

Probability 4.19 3.27 2.78

Premium 3.47 3.10 2.75

MAKING LOW PROBABILITIES USEFUL113

Figure2.Differences in mean risk score for different probabilities and premiums(Studies1–4). (1999)suggest that knowing about two points on a scale leads to greater evaluability than knowing just a single point.Is it essential that the two comparison points be similar risks?

Study5examines these issues.Some respondents see a qualitative description for a single comparison point and others see two points with descriptions.The respondents who see two comparison points are further divided.For some respondents the two com-parison points describe similar risks and for other respondents the two comparison points describe dissimilar risks.Respondents in Study5were405students at a large university in the northwest.

The same scenarios used in Study4were used in Study5with new comparison information on the probability of an accident.Study5was a3(probability for plant)×3 (comparison story)design with nine groups corresponding to the cells of Table8.There were3types of comparison information given to three different groups of respondents. One group of respondents saw:

For comparison purposes,consider a small town in the mountains of Colorado where there is snow cover for a few months every year and the mountain roads have sharp

Table8.Design of Study5

Comparison story High probability Medium probability Low probability

1car1in6501in63001in68,000

1car/1?sh1in6501in63001in68,000

2?sh1in6501in63001in68,000

114KUNREUTHER,NOVEMSKY AND KAHNEMAN curves.For a driver in this town,the estimated probability of his or her death from

a car accident is1in5900per year.

Asecond group of respondents saw the following comparison:

For comparison purposes,consider a small town in the mountains of Colorado where there is snow cover for a few months every year and the mountain roads have sharp curves.For a driver in this town,the estimated probability of his or her death from

a car accident is1in5900per year.For someone who eats well cooked,but not raw

shell?sh once a week at a reputable restaurant,the estimated probability of death from food poisoning is1in66,000per year.

The third group saw:

For comparison purposes,consider someone in a small?shing town who eats raw shell?sh every week that are purchased directly from small unlicensed?shing boats before the?sh have been inspected.This person’s estimated probability of death from food poisoning is approximately1in5900per year.For someone who eats well cooked,but not raw shell?sh once a week at a reputable restaurant,the estimated probability of death from food poisoning is1in66,000per year.

Results.The means of the perceived risk are displayed in Table9.Three separate one-way ANOV As were performed,one for each comparison story.Respondents who saw the1car comparison story showed a signi?cant effect of probability on perceived risk (F(2,129)=7.48,p=.001).The1car/l?sh comparison produced non-signi?cant effects of probability on perceived risk(F(2,124)=1.74,ns).The2?sh comparison produced the largest effects in this study(F(2,137)=16.0,p<.001).

Conclusions.Table10shows the effects of different comparison points on respondents’ability to use the probability value associated with chemical plant accidents.Respon-dents who saw a comparison point of car travel without any story to induce a feeling of riskiness(Study2)did not appear to use the probability value associated with the chemical plant in judging the risk posed by the plant.Acomparison point in Study5 of car travel with a story that produced a feeling of riskiness in respondents produced a larger response to the probability scale(1Car/Story).

Respondents in Study5who saw two comparison points with risks and stories that were not readily comparable(1Car/1Fish),were not able to get a sense of how to map probability distances onto riskiness.However,when people in Study4were offered two

Table9.Mean perception of risk of chemical plant for different comparison sto-

ries and different probabilities associated with chemical accidents(Study5)

Comparison story High probability Medium probability Low probability

1car 3.75 3.42 3.00

1car/1?sh 3.84 3.57 3.51

2?sh 3.52 3.24 2.64

MAKING LOW PROBABILITIES USEFUL115

Table10.Results for different comparison values

Difference in perceived risk

between high and low

Chemical plant value Comparison probabilities

Study2:One value1Car/No Story 54

Study5:One value1Car/Story 75

Study5:One value1Car1Fish/Story 33

Study5:One value2Fish/Story 88

Study4:One value2Cars/Story1 41

Study3:All three values1Car/No Story1 86

comparison points that have distinctive feelings of risk that can be readily compared to each other(2Cars/Story)their differences in perceived risk between high and low prob-abilities of a chemical accident was almost as large as when respondents were given all three probability values for the three different chemical plants(Study3).These compar-ison points(2Cars/Story)not only gave respondents an anchor point for the scale,but also a sense of how distance on the probability scale maps onto differences in feelings of riskiness.

There are a couple of possible reasons why the2Cars/Story comparisons evoked larger differences in perceived probability of chemical accidents than the2Fish/Story scenario.First,the car accident risk may be easier for respondents to visualize than the ?sh risk.We have lots of images of curvy roads,mangled cars,and people in stretchers next to the highway that we associate with car accidents.For the?sh story it is less clear which images come to mind.Do respondents imagine discolored?sh or a person looking nauseous after eating the?sh?These images seem less accessible and less vivid. Comparison risks that have vivid images that easily come to mind may be the most effective way to sensitize people to varying levels of riskiness.

Another reason why the car comparison may have worked better than the?sh com-parison is the amount of experience respondents have with each type of risk.Most respondents have spent time riding in cars,seeing accidents on the side of the road,and viewing videos of accidents on TV or in a driver education class.Respondents most likely have limited if any experience with the risks associated with poisonous?sh.What makes one comparison risk more effective than another is an important question for future research.

3.1.The psychology of low probability risks

The notion of evaluability recently introduced by Hsee and his colleagues(Hsee et al., 1999;Hsee,1996)provides a theoretical basis for our results.In our experiments respon-dents were asked to use a small probability value as part of a judgment of riskiness. Using Hsee’s framework,we would say that the small probabilities are not readily evalu-able by respondents in the absence of context information.As individuals are provided

116KUNREUTHER,NOVEMSKY AND KAHNEMAN with increasingly useful context information,the probabilities become more and more evaluable.

Consider people trying to evaluate the riskiness of a chemical plant in the absence of any context information.They are given a single low probability value as part of a description and asked to make a risk judgment.If they have no idea whether the prob-ability represents a high or low risk,they will not be able to use that value in forming their risk judgment.Now consider the respondents in Study2who are given information about the probability of death for car travel.They are shown a probability for the chemi-cal plant that is either above or below the probability for car travel.If respondents do not have a well-de?ned feeling of risk for car travel,this context information will not help them evaluate the chemical plant.Respondents will be left thinking,“The chemical plant may be safer than car travel,but exactly how safe is car travel?”The results of Study2, in fact,show little effect of the probability of a chemical accident on its perceived safety when a car travel scenario is introduced.

Now,consider the respondents in Study5who are not only given the probability of death from car travel in Colorado but also a few sentences about driving in Colorado. The image of windy snow-covered roads is more likely to evoke a speci?c feeling of risk than reference to car travel in general.Some respondents see a probability of a chemical plant accident that is higher than the Colorado value and others see a probability that is lower.It is not surprising that these respondents had different feelings about the risk associated with the chemical plant.

While these respondents could judge less safe/more safe,they may not be very sensitive to the size of probability differences.Respondents could readily compare probabilities when given two scenarios,one involving a car accident in Colorado and the other a car accident in Arizona with a few sentences describing each event.This comparison can help them infer how distances along the probability dimension map onto distances along the riskiness scale.The two-car scenarios allow them to deduce that an order of magnitude change in probability corresponds roughly to the difference between driving on windy snowy mountain roads and driving on straight clear roads.When they see a chemical plant that is an order of magnitude less safe than driving in Colorado,they have a sense of how much less safe that really is.This results in even more sensitivity to probability.

The respondents who saw a few sentences about driving in Colorado and a few sen-tences about eating raw shell?sh were given two risky scenarios,but these scenarios were harder to compare with each other.How much more dangerous is driving on snowy roads than eating raw shell?sh in a reputable restaurant?Comparing driving risks to food risks may not leave respondents with a speci?c notion of relative risk.In fact,this comparison can even confuse respondents about how to map probabilities onto the risk scale and may lead to less use of probability information when evaluating the chemical plant. We have seen that context information can have a large effect on people’s ability to use small probabilities in forming risk judgments.We conclude that there needs to be fairly rich context information available for people to be able to judge differences between low probability events.In particular,people need comparison scenarios that are located on the probability scale and evoke people’s own feelings of risk.It is also very useful for

MAKING LOW PROBABILITIES USEFUL117 these contextual scenarios to be comparable to each other for people to get a sense of how differences in probability map onto differences in riskiness.

Finally we were surprised to?nd that insurance premium differentials did not enable respondents to differentiate between chemical accident risks better than differences in probabilities.We initially hypothesized that people’s familiarity with insurance premiums would make it easier for them to differentiate between high and low dollar?gures,so that this information would serve as a signal of the relative safety of the chemical plant. Even when context-scenarios are provided to the respondent as in Study3,people appear to make better distinctions between the riskiness of the chemical plant when probability information is given to them than when insurance premiums are provided.Our results suggest that insurance premiums in isolation may not be the best communicators of risk. The potential role that insurance can play as a signal for safety is an area that needs further research.

4.Implications of?ndings

The studies highlight the need to give individuals enough context to draw on their own experiences and well-developed risk perceptions,if we are to ask them to evaluate an unfamiliar risk which has a small likelihood of occurring.Aprobability or insurance premium scale does not directly convey a feeling of riskiness.The feelings associated with different probabilities may be highly context dependent.In fact,if we had used different comparison points,we might have induced different perceptions of the chemical plant’s risk.

Our?ndings have implications for risk management and policy.In the past,agencies such as the EPAhave relied on command and control procedures for enforcing spe-ci?c safety rules with only mixed success(Davies and Mazurek,1998).More recently there has been an interest in market mechanisms such as third party inspections coupled with insurance as alternatives to these traditional procedures(Orts,1995;Kunreuther, McNulty,and Kang,2001).The fact that safer?rms may be charged less for insurance could be a byproduct of such inspections.Perhaps by providing the public with these rate differentials or probability values in the context of an inspection process,one may be able to improve the risk communication process.As the above studies have shown,if one only gives individuals data on probabilities or insurance premiums this will not do the trick.

Our?ndings also have implications for consumers choosing protective measures for themselves and their property.If individuals are expected to distinguish different levels of risk posed by events with different probabilities of occurrence,they need more than to simply be made aware of the probability value,If perception is to accurately re?ect the probability of relevant risks,the public needs substantial context information to allow appropriate evaluation of this risk.In our studies,this required giving individuals,not simply a comparison point or a dollar scale,but giving them scenarios that elicit their feelings of risk and linking them up with the probability scale.

118KUNREUTHER,NOVEMSKY AND KAHNEMAN Appendix

Please answer the following questions,after reading the scenario:

1.Circle how much you agree or disagree with each of the following statements: The ABC Chemicals plant poses serious health and safety risks for those cur-rently living in the community.

12345

Strongly Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly

Disagree Agree

It is possible for the plant to operate at its current location in a manner that is safe for the community.

12345

Strongly Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly

Disagree Agree

Accidents are inevitable despite the best precautions,and the community just has to accept that some accidents will occur at the plant.

12345

Strongly Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly

Disagree Agree

2.On a scale of1to5,circle how serious do you think the risk of death is posed by each of the following items.(1=not serious,5=very serious)

Car accidents12345

Food poisoning12345

Accidents on the job12345

Heart disease12345

Homes?res12345

Syntox used at the ABC

Chemicals plant12345

Airplane accidents12345

MAKING LOW PROBABILITIES USEFUL119

3.Circle how close to the ABC Chemicals plant you would be willing to live. Please base your decision solely on the safety of the plant,assuming that the plant is

otherwise an ideal neighbor.

Adjacent to the plant1

Not adjacent,but within1/2mile2

Within1/2to1mile3

Within1to3miles4

Over3miles5

Would not be willing to live in the6

community because of the plant

Acknowledgments

We appreciate useful discussions with Paul Slovic and Chris Hsee and an anonymous ref-eree of an earlier draft of this paper.Linda Bornayesz was helpful in administering earlier versions of the ABC Chemical scenarios.Special appreciation is due to Grace Katagiri and Till von Wachter for administering the surveys at the San Francisco Exploratorium. An earlier version of the paper was presented at the Society for Judgment and Decision-Making annual meeting where helpful comments were received.

Note

1.We did not vary the order of presentation of the three chemical plants in presenting the scenarios to

individuals.We do not anticipate that order had any effect,since respondents were answering each question for plant1then plant2then plant3before moving on to the next question.In the questionnaire layout,we expect that individuals had all three plants in mind each time they provided a response.

References

Camerer,Colin and Howard Kunreuther.(1989).“Decision Processes for Low Probability Events:Policy Impli-cations,”Journal of Policy Analysis and Management8,565–592.

Davies,Clarence and Jan Mazurek.(1998).Pollution Control in the United States.Washington,DC:Resources for the Future.

Er,Jwee Ping,Howard Kunreuther,and Isadore Rosenthal.(1998).“Utilizing Third Party Inspections for Preventing Major Chemical Accidents,”Risk Analysis18,145–154.

Hogarth,Robin and Howard Kunreuther.(1995).“Decision Making Under Ignorance:Arguing with Yourself,”Journal of Risk and Uncertainty10,15–36.

Hsee,Chris.(1996).“The Evaluability Hypothesis:An Explanation of Preference Reversals between Joint and Separate Evaluations of Alternatives,”Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes46,247–257. Hsee,Chris,Sally Blount,George Loewenstein,and Max Bazerman.(1999).“Preference Reversals between Joint and Separate Evaluations of Options:AReview and Theoretical A nalysis,”Psychological Review125, 576–590.

120KUNREUTHER,NOVEMSKY AND KAHNEMAN

Huber,O.,R.Wider,and O.Huber.(1997).“Active Information Search and Complete Information Presentation in Naturalistic Risky Decision Tasks,”Acta Psychologica95,15–29.

Kunreuther,Howard,Patrick McNulty,and Yong Kang.(2001).“Third Party Inspection as an Alternative to Command and Control Regulation.”In Kurt Deketelaere and Eric W.Orts(eds.),Environmental Contracts: Comparative Approaches to Regulatory Innovation in the United States and Europe.The Hague:Kluwer Law International.

Magat,Wes,Kip Viscusi,and Joel Huber.(1987)“Risk-Dollar Tradeoffs,Risk Perceptions,and Consumer Behavior.”In W.Viscusi and W.Magat(eds.),Learning About Risk,p.83–97.Cambridge,MA:Harvard University Press.

McClelland,Gary,William Schulze,and Don Coursey.(1993).“Insurance for Low-Probability Hazards: ABimodal Response to Unlikely Events,”Journal of Risk and Uncertainty7,95–116.

Oberholzer-Gee,Felix.(1998).“Learning to Bear the Unbearable:Towards an Explanation of Risk Ignorance,”mimeo,Wharton School,University of Pennsylvania.

Orts,Eric.(1995).“Re?exive Environmental Law,”Northwestern University Law Review89.

Slovic,Paul,Baruch Fischhoff,and Sara Lichtenstein.(1978).“Accident Probabilities and Seat Belt Usage: APsychological Perspective,”Accident Analysis and Prevention10,281–285.

Stone,E.,F.Yates,and A.Parker.(1994).“Risk Communication:Absolute versus Relative Expressions of Low-Probability Risks,”Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes60,387–408. Weinstein,N.,K.Kolb,and B.Goldstein.(1996).“Using Time Intervals between Expected Events to Com-municate Risk Magnitudes,”Risk Analysis16,305–398.

爱护环境低碳生活演讲稿范文5篇

爱护环境低碳生活演讲稿范文5篇 篇一 亲爱的老师、同学们: 大家好! 同学们,你们是否想生活在这样的环境里:在蔚蓝的天空中,小鸟正在自由自在的飞翔;在茂密的森林中,小动物们正在快乐地嬉闹;大片大片绿油油的草地,是小虫子们的乐园;在清澈见底的小河里,鱼儿们开心地游来游去;在漂亮的花园里,美丽的蝴蝶上下翻飞,空气里流动着鲜花的芳香……但是,这一切,都离现实太远太远了。现在,洪水、泥石流、地震、森林火灾、海啸、龙卷风、沙尘暴等自然灾害屡屡骚扰着人类,对人类造成威胁。那么,是谁使我们的地球母亲变成这个样子了呢?就是我们人类。由于人类不保护环境,大量土地被占用,大量树木被砍伐,空气、河水被污染……你是不是觉得,我们人类是一群只为自己生活得舒服,而不为我们生活的地球着想的可恶物种?还好,现在人们已经意识到了这一点,已经开始大力提倡“环保低碳生活”。 什么是“环保低碳生活”呢?就是就是指生活作息时所

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倡导低碳生活的意义

倡导低碳生活的意义 低碳经济是以低能耗、低污染、低排放为基础的经济模式,是人类社会继农业文明、工业文明之后的又一次重大进步。低碳经济实质是能源高效利用、清洁能源开发、追求绿色GDP的问题,核心是能源技术和减排技术创新、产业结构和制度创新以及人类生存发展观念的根本性转变。 减碳经济产业体系包括火电减排、新能源汽车、建筑节能、工业节能和循环经济、资源回收、环保设备和节能材料等。 低碳经济是一种正在兴起的经济形态和发展模式,包含低碳产业、低碳技术、低碳城市、低碳生活等一系列新内容。它通过大幅度提高能源利用效率,大规模使用可再生能源与低碳能源,大范围研发温室气体减排技术,建设低碳社会,维护生态平衡。发展低碳经济既是一场涉及生产方式、生活方式、价值观念、国家权益和人类命运的全球性革命,又是全球经济不得不从高碳能源转向低碳能源的一个必然选择。 一是我国人均能源资源拥有量不高,探明量仅相当于世界人均水平的51%。这种先天不足再加上后天的粗放利用,客观上要求我们发展低碳经济。 二是碳排放总量突出。按照联合国通用的公式计算,碳排放总量实际上是4个因素的乘积:人口数量、人均GDP、单位GDP的能耗量(能源强度)、单位能耗产生的碳排放(碳强度)。我国人口众多,经济增长快速,能源消耗巨大,碳排放总量不可避免地逐年增大,其中还包含着出口产品的大量"内涵能源"。我们靠高碳路径生产廉价产品出口,却背上了碳排放总量大的"黑锅"。在一些发达国家将气候变化当作一个政治问题之后,我国发展低碳经济意义尤为重大。 三是"锁定效应"的影响。在事物发展过程中,人们对初始路径和规则的选择具有依赖性,一旦作出选择,就很难改弦易辙,以至在演进过程中进入一种类似于"锁定"的状态,这种现象简称"锁定效应"。工业革命以来,各国经济社会发展形成了对化石能源技术的严重依赖,其程度也随各国的能源消费政策而异。发达国家在后工业化时期,一些重化工等高碳产业和技术不断通过国际投资贸易渠道向发展中国家转移。中国倘若继续沿用传统技术,发展高碳产业,未来需要承诺温室气体定量减排或限排义务时,就可能被这些高碳产业设施所"锁定"。因此,我国在现代化建设的过程中,需要认清形势,及早筹划,把握好碳预算,避免高碳产业和消费的锁定,努力使整个社会的生产消费系统摆脱对化石能源的过度依赖。 四是生产的边际成本不断提高。碳减排客观上存在着边际成本与减排难度随减排量增加而增加的趋势。1980-1999年的19年间,我国能源强度年均降低了5.22%;而1980-2006年的26年间,能源强度年均降低率为3.9%。两者之差,隐含着边际成本日趋提高的事实。另外,单纯节能减排也有一定的范围所限。因此,必须从全球低碳经济发展大趋势着眼,通过转变经济增长方式和调整产业结构,把宝贵的资金及早有序地投入到未来有竞争力的低碳经济方面。 五是碳排放空间不大。发达国家历史上人均千余吨的二氧化碳排放量,大大挤压了发展中国家当今的排放空间。我们完全有理由根据"共同但有区别的责任"原则,要求发达国家履行公约规定的义务,率先减排。2006年,我国的人均用电量为2060度,低于世界平均水平,只有经合组织国家的1/4左右,不到美国的1/6。但一次性能源用量占世界的16%以上,二氧化碳排放总量超过了世界的20%,同世界人均排放量相等。这表明,我国在工业化和城市化进程中,碳排放强度偏高,而能源用量还将继续增长,碳排放空间不会很大,应该积极发展低碳经济。

低碳基本知识

“低碳生活”(low-carbonlife),就是指生活作息时所耗用的能量要尽力减少,从而减低碳,特别是二氧化碳的排放量,从而减少对大气的污染,减缓生态恶化,主要是从节电节气和回收三个环节来改变生活细节。 基本概念 所谓“低碳生活(low-carbon life)”。就是把生活作息时间所耗用的能量要尽量减少,从而减低二氧化碳的排放量。低碳生活,对于我们这些普通人来说是一种生活态度。也成为人们推进潮流的新方式。它给我们提出的是一个愿不愿意和大家共创造低碳生活的问题。我们应该积极提倡并去实践低碳生活,要注意节电、节气、熄灯一小时……从这些点滴做起。除了植树,还有人买运输里程很短的商品,有人坚持爬楼梯,形形色色,有的很有趣,有的不免有些麻烦 二氧化碳 但关心全球气候变暖的人们却把减少二氧化碳实实在在地带入了生活转向低碳生活方式的重要途径之一,是戒除以高耗能源为代价的“便利消费”嗜好。“便利”是现代商业营销和消费生活中流行的价值观。不少便利消费方式在人们不经意中浪费着巨大的能源。比如,据制冷技术专家估算,超市电耗70%用于冷柜,而敞开式冷柜电耗比玻璃门冰柜高出20%。由此推算,一家中型超市敞开式冷柜一年多耗约4.8万度电,相当于多耗约19吨标煤,多排放约48吨二氧化碳,多耗约19万升净水。上海约有大中型超市近800家,超市便利店6000家。如果大中型超市普遍采用玻璃门冰柜,顾客购物时只需举手之劳,一年可节电约4521万度,相当于节省约1.8万吨标煤,减排约4.5万吨二氧化碳。在中国,年人均CO2排放量2.7吨,但一个城市白领即便只有40平居住面积,开1.6L车上下班,一年乘飞机12次,碳排放量也会在2611千克。由此看来,节能减排势在必行。如果说保护环境、保护动物、节约能源这些环保理念已成行为准则,低碳生活则更是我们急需建立的绿色生活方式。“低碳生活”虽然是新概念,但提出的却是世界可持续发展的老问题,它反映了人类因气候变化而对未来产生的担忧,世界对此问题的共识日益增多。全球变暖等气候问题致使人类不得不考量目前的生态环境。 个人意识 人类意识到生产和消费过程中出现的过量碳排放是形成气候问题的重要因素之一,因而要减少碳排放就要相应优化和约束某些消费和生产活动。尽管仍有学者对气候变化原因有不同的看法,但由于“低碳生活”理念至少顺应了人类“未雨绸缪”的谨慎原则和追求完美的心理与理想,因此“宁可信其有,不愿信其无”,“低碳生活”理念也就渐渐被世界各国所接受。低碳生活的出现不仅告诉人们,你可以为减碳做些什么,还告诉人们,你可以怎么做。在这种生活方式逐渐兴起的时候,大家开始关心,我今天有没有为减碳做些什么呢?在北京的八达岭,一个碳汇林林场已经成形。 林业碳汇 如果你想抵消掉自己的碳排放,可以来这里购买碳汇林或种树。林业碳汇是通过实施造林和森林经营管理、植被恢复等活动,植物叶片中的叶绿体通过光合作用吸收水,土里的无机盐和水分,释放氧气通过筛管把制造的有机物再运送到土里,土里的真菌和细菌再把有机物分解,从而产生物质循环,对于低碳方面来说起到减少空气中二氧化碳的作用。比起少开车、少开空调,购买碳汇林的主意,受到更多人的欢迎。目前,减缓气候变暖的主要措施是

绿色出行低碳生活从我做起

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