内外経済中长期展望

2002 12

2002 12 2000-05 0.1 0.8 2005-10 1.6 1.8 1 IT

2007

2010 2006

2010

1.00

1.00

2010 120 /

2008 2

2010 25 /

2000 2005 1.93 2005 2010 2.13 1 1.39 1.56 1

2000 05 2005 10 2000 05 2005 10 2

3

1

CES

()[]

ρ

ρ

ρ

δδ1

1?

???+=L K

Ae

Y gt

Y K L g

[]

109.01

109.0109.000224.0671.0329.00965.0L K e Y t +=

2 0.90 IT 2005

3 TFP Total Factor Productivity

0.9 IT 2000 05 1.2 2005 2010 1.5

IT 1995 IT 4 IT IT OECD IT IT IT 5

90 6 IT 0.3 0.3 0.6

2003 90

4 Jorgenson and Stiroh (2000) IT 1990 9

5 1995 98 IT 2002 CEA IT 0.1

6 0.90 1.06 1995

5 Bresnahan, Brynjolfsson, and Hitt (1999) IT IT IT 2001 IT IT

6 (1997) IT GDP (1997) 0.27

2006 15 64 1995 2000 2010 0.54% 7 2000 2005 0.28% 2010 0.43% 8 2000

7 2000 5

8 2010 60 30 40 2010 30 40 2040

2005 0.19 2005 2010 0.29%

M 30 40 20 60 60 2010 9

90 4

2010 5 2.8 0.9%

9 Jorgenson and Motohashi 2003

2001

16

2005 GDP 2010 2007 8 2 1

2006 36 2007 30 GDP 2003 3.9 2005 3.8 2010 0.4 2007 2003 0.2 2010 1.4

2010 40 10 GDP 2010 2.1

2010 2010 2 3

2003 450 2010 620 170 GDP 20 100 2010

CPI 2006 CPI CPI 2006 2006 CPI 2007

2005 4

2010

2 3

GDP 2002 8 4.7 2003 7-9 GDP 2006 CPI

IT

30

”Geopolitical Risk”

OPEC

OPEC

OPEC

OPEC

2005 2003 2004 2004 2005 2006 2.1 2005-10 1.9

2000