上海住宅地产报告Shanghai Residential Property Market Research and Forecast Report 3Q15

Market Overview

Shanghai’s residential property market in 3Q15 slowed from the previous quarter in terms of the new supply and demand, though was still more active than the same period of 2014. Stimulus measures including further reductions in the benchmark interest rates and the rate for provident fund loans, announced in August, supported this increased activity. Developers adopted a cautious approach to launching new supply, and focused on reducing inventory during this quarter, evidenced by an annual decline of 7% in the new supply. The average sales price of Shanghai’s new commodity housing market remained stab le from the previous quarter, though registered an annual increase of 19%, underpinned by sales in the high-end market.

Residential land transactions recorded a third month of consecutive decline in 3Q15, in light of the Shanghai government’s target to further increase the land supply for affordable housing. However, the average accommodation price continued to rise, driven b y the transactions of several land sites designated for mixed-use (including residential) in Zhabei and Yangpu districts. Supply

The new supply of Shanghai’s commodity residential properties in 3Q15 increased 2.6% q-o-q to approximately 3.0 million sqm (24,568 units), after a significant increase in new supply in the previous quarter. However, the new supply declined by 8.3% y-o-y as developers focused on reducing inventory.

By district, Pudong recorded the highest supply volume in 3Q15 at 514,801 sqm (4,002 units), followed by 371,186 sqm (3,413 units) in Nanhui. New supply in Yangpu District fell to 667 sqm (3 units) in this quarter, following 133,861 sqm (1,036 units) in the previous quarter. By contrast, Qingpu District registered a strong pickup in the new supply at 82% q-o-q or 25.7% y-o-y to 362,267 sqm (2,836 units). 市场概览

２０１５年第三季度，上海住宅物业市场新增供应及需求增速较上季度放缓，但较去年同期更为活跃。该交易活动的增强得益于八月公布的基准利率及公积金贷款利率的进一步下调等刺激举措。季内，发展商对推新盘持谨慎态度并专注于减少库存，新增供应下跌７％即系作证。受高端市场销售支撑，上海新建商品住宅市场销售均价较上季度维稳，但仍同比增长１９％。

与上海政府力求进一步增加保障性住房用地供应之目标相符，季内住宅用地成交量连续三个月下跌。然而，受闸北区和杨浦区数宗综合用地（含住宅业态）成交推动，平均楼板价持续上涨。

供应

继上季度新增供应显著增长后，本季度上海新建商品住宅新增供应环比增长２．６％，至约３００万平方米（２４，５６８套）。然而，鉴于发展商专注于减少库存，新增供应同比减少８．３％。

按区位分析，浦东于季内录得最高供应量，达５１４，８０１平方米（４，００２套），南汇以３７１，１８６　平方米（３，４１３　套）位居其后。继上季度杨浦区新增供应达１３３，８６１平方米（１，０３６套）后，季内该区新增供应跌至６６７平方米（３套）。相较之下，青浦区新增供应录得强劲增长，环比及同比分别上涨８２％或２５．７％，至３６２，２６７平方米（２，８３６套）。

By category, the supply of villas remained tight due to the government’s restrictions on land supply for this sector, decreasing by 16.6% q-o-q or 7.5% y-o-y to 260,534 sqm (1,112 units). The supply of apartments saw a quarterly increase of 11.9% b ut a decrease of 7.3% y-o-y to approximately 2.8 million sqm (23,456 units).

Demand

The purchasing sentiment for Shanghai’s commodity residential property remained strong in 3Q15, sustained b y several policy changes announced in this quarter. In August, the People’s Bank of China lowered the benchmark interest rate for the fourth time in 2015. At the same time, Shanghai’s government cut the rate for provident fund loans. Shanghai extended RMB19.3 b illion in mortgages in August, compared to RMB4.2 billion in August 2014, according to the People’s Bank of China. This was in line with the growing demand for Shanghai’s residential properties. The sales volume for Shanghai’s commodity houses totalled approximately 3.4 million sqm (28,058 units), a moderate decline of 16.8% q-o-q, but notably represented an annual increase of 63%. In the high-end residential market (RMB40,000 psm or ab ove), the sales volume totalled 864,843 sqm (5,330 units), a decline of 19.2% q-o-q but an increase of 121% y-o-y.

By category, the sales volume of villas and apartments increased by 59% and 63% on an annual basis to 419,464 sqm (1,844 units) and approximately 3.0 million sqm (26,214 units) respectively in 3Q15. Nanhui registered the highest sales volume at 490,004 sqm (4,495 units), followed by 408,309 sqm (2,868 units) in Pudong. Yihao Town, an apartment project outside the sub urb an ring in Nanhui, registered the highest sales volume (110,998 sqm). Price

The average sales price of Shanghai’s new commodity housing in 3Q15 remained unchanged from the previous quarter at RMB31,844 psm but was an annual increase of 18.6% y-o-y. The sales price of the high-end sector (RMB40,000 psm or above) remained stable from 2Q15 at RMB59,534 psm, an increase of 8.1% y-o-y. The 按品类分析，别墅类供应因政府限制别墅用地而持续紧张，环比及同比分别下降１６．６％或７．５％，至２６０，５３４平方米（１，１１２套）。公寓类供应呈现季度性增长１１．９％，但同比下跌７．３％至约２８０万平方米（２３，４５６套）。

需求

２０１５年第三季度，受季内数项政策调整所支撑，上海商品住宅物业市场购买情绪持续强劲。八月，中国人民银行于年内第四次下调基准利率。同期，上海政府下调公积金贷款利率。据中国人民银行发布数据，与２０１４年八月上海个人住房贷款增加人民币４２亿元相比，今年同期增加值达人民币１９３亿元，这与上海不断增长的住宅物业需求相符。上海商品住宅销售量达３４０万平方米（２８，０５８套），环比小幅下降１６．８％，但同比仍显著增长６３％。高端住宅市场（人民币４万元每平方米及以上）销售量达８６４，８４３平方米（５，３３０套），环比下跌１９．２％或同比激增１２１％。

按品类分析，季内别墅类及公寓类销售量同比分别增长５９％及６３％，至４１９，４６４　平方米　（１，８４４　套）及约３００万平方米（２６，２１４套）。南汇录得最高销售量，达４９０，００４平方米（４，４９５套），浦东以４０８，３０９平方米（２，８６８套）位居其后。地处郊环外南汇区内的宜浩绿园公寓项目录得最高销售量（１１０，９９８平方米）。

价格

季内，上海新建商品住宅销售均价与上季度相若，为人民币３１，８４４元每平方米，但仍同比增长１８．６％。高端住宅（人民币４万元每平方米及以上）销售均价较上季度维稳，为人民币５９，５３４元每平方米，同比增长８．１％。季内，中低端住宅（人民

Figure 2 Shanghai Average Residential Sales Price by Area

图２ 上海各环线子市场商品住宅成交均价

Figure 1 Shanghai Residential Market New Supply, Transacted Area and Average Price 图１ 上海商品住宅销售市场供应、成交面积及均价

Source: Research, Colliers International, Shanghai 数据来源：上海高力国际研究部Source: Research, Colliers International, Shanghai

数据来源：上海高力国际研究部

2Shanghai Research & Forecast Report | 3Q 2015 | Residential | Colliers International

sales price of the low- to mid-end sector (RMB39,999 psm or below) remained unchanged on a quarterly basis at RMB22,569 psm, but represented an annual increase of 10.2%.

By category, the sales price of villas decreased by 3.9% q-o-q but was up 13.8% y-o-y to RMB34,874 psm. The sales price of apartments saw an annual increase of 19.4% to RMB31,424 psm, b ut was unchanged from the previous quarter. By geographic area (divided by ring road), the sales price of the area between the inner ring road and the middle ring road saw the fastest annual growth at 23.8% to RMB62,543 psm, followed by 13.4% growth to RMB71,741 psm in the area within the inner ring road. The increase in the prices of residential properties within the middle ring road was driven by strong demand for high-end or luxury properties.

Land Market

Residential land supply remained tight, and the land transactions were limited to seven sites in 3Q15 (as of Septemb er 20), in line with the government’s goals to support the construction of affordable housing. The transacted land area decreased by 30.7% q-o-q or 70% y-o-y to 414,868 psm, whilst the average accommodation price surged 131% y-o-y from RMB9,258 psm to RMB21,339 psm. This was attrib uted to several transactions of land sites designated for mixed-use (including residential) with relatively high accommodation prices.

In July, Financial Street Holdings purchased a 77,274 sqm land site designated for commercial and residential use in proximity to Zhabei District’s railway station at an accommodation price of RMB22,412 sqm and a total price of RMB8.8 billion, the highest amount paid for a single site in Shanghai in 2015. This was followed in August by Yango Group‘s purchase of a 15,277 sqm land site for residential use in Yangpu’s riverside area at an accommodation price of RMB49,236 psm, a new record high in Yangpu District. 币３９，９９９元每平方米及以下）销售均价维持在人民币２２，５６９元每平方米，但同比增长１０．２％。

按品类分析，别墅类销售均价环比下跌３．９％，但同比上涨１３．８％至人民币３４，８７４元每平方米。公寓类销售均价同比上涨１９．４％至人民币３１，４２４元每平方米，与上季度持平。按区域分析（以环线划分），内中环区域住宅销售价格同比增长２３．８％至人民币６２，５４３元每平方米，系最高增速。内环内区域销售价格位居其后，同比增长１３．４％至人民币７１，７４１元每平方米。高端住宅或豪宅物业的强劲需求推动了中环内住宅销售价格的上涨。

土地市场

与政府扶持保障性住房建设目标相符，住宅用地供应仍然紧张，且季内土地成交有限，仅七宗地块成交（截至９月２０日）。土地成交面积环比下降３０．７％或同比下降７０％至４１４，８６８平方米，而平均楼板价同比激增１３１％，从人民币９，２５８元每平方米涨至人民币２１，３３９元每平方米。数宗地块以较高楼板价成交系其原因。

七月，金融街控股以楼板价人民币２２，４１２元每平方米购得临近闸北火车站的一宗７７，２７４平方米的商住用地，总价为人民币８８亿元，系年内上海单笔地块交易最高价格。八月，阳光城以楼板价人民币４９，２３６元每平方米购得杨浦滨江板块内一宗１５，２７７平方米的住宅用地，创杨浦区楼板价新高。

Figure 4 Shanghai Residential Land Sales Area by District 3Q15

图４ ２０１５年第三季度上海各区商品住宅用地成交量比重

Figure 3 Shanghai Commodity Residential Land Transacted Area and Average AV 图３ 上海商品住宅用地成交面积及平均楼板价

Source: Research, Colliers International, Shanghai 数据来源：上海高力国际研究部Source: Research, Colliers International, Shanghai

数据来源：上海高力国际研究部

Carlby Xie MSc, MRICS Director

Research | China +86 21 6141 3688

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Outlook

The central and Shanghai governments have continued to support the residential real estate market during 2015 through a series of policy changes to the property tax, mortgage and provident fund guidelines. These government measures to improve the purchasing sentiment have already taken effect, evidenced by a strong pick up in the sales volume in 2Q15 and 3Q15, respectively at 100% y-o-y and 63% y-o-y. This improved purchase sentiment is likely to continue into the remainder of 2015, sustained by the existing policies, anticipated further policy changes favourable to home b uyers within 2015 and the traditional pickup in sales in October.

A short-term increase in the new supply by end-2015 is expected, as some developers attempt to meet year-end sales targets, though the general trend will be to reduce inventory. As a result, the new supply in 4Q15 is expected to b e in line with 4Q14. Demand is expected to remain robust and translate into a noticeable increase in the sales volume over the same period of 2014, in anticipation of possible policy changes in 2016.

The average sales price for Shanghai’s commodity housing in 4Q15 is expected to remain stable, as developers are likely to offer promotions to achieve their annual sales target. Land transactions

for commodity housing are expected to remain limited, leading to a long-term increase in Shanghai’s average accommodation price.

展望

２０１５年，中央及上海政府针对房产税，房贷及公积金方案等进行了一系列的政策调整，藉此持续支持住宅地产市场。这些旨在提振购买情绪的政府举措已然产生了影响，２０１５年第二及第三季度销售量的强劲回升即系作证，其同比分别增长１００％及６３％。在现行政策、对年内再现利好政策调整之预期，及十月销售旺季来临的共同支撑下，改善的购买情绪有望在２０１５年第四季度得以延续。

由于发展商力求完成年度销售目标，新增供应有望在年末呈现短期增长，尽管去化库存仍系大势所趋。有鉴于此，２０１５年第四季度新增供应水平将与去年同期相若。对２０１６年可能的政策调整之预期使需求有望保持强劲，并将转化为显著的销售量同比增长。

２０１５年第四季度，鉴于发展商有望提供优惠以达成年度销售目标，上海商品住宅销售均价预计持稳。商品住宅用地成交仍将有限，继而长期推升上海平均楼板价。