研究生学术综合英语1-6课课文及翻译汇编
Presenting a speech
（做演讲）
Of all human creations, language may be the most remarkable. Through
在人类所有的创造中，语言也许是影响最为深远的。我们用语言
language we share experience, formulate values, exchange ideas, transmit
来分享经验，表达(传递？)价值观，交换想法，传播知识，
knowledge, and sustain culture. Indeed, language is vital to think itself.
传承文化。事实上，对语言本身的思考也是至关重要的。[Contrary to popular belief], language | does not simply mirror reality but
also helps to create our sense of reality [by giving meaning to events].
和通常所认为的不同的是，语言并不只是简单地反映现实，语言在
具体描述事件的时候也在帮助我们建立对现实的感知。
——语序的调整。
Good speakers have respect for language and know how it works. Words are the tools of a speaker’s craft. They have special uses, just like the tools of any other profession. As a speaker, you should be aware of the meaning of words and know how to use language accurately, clearly,vividly,and appropriately.
好的演讲者对语言很重视，也知道如何让它发挥更好的效果。词语是演讲者演讲的重要“武器”，具有特殊的用途，这和任何其他的工作技艺没什么两样。作为演讲者，必须知道词语的具体含义，也要懂得如何做到用词准确、清晰、生动、适当。
Using language accurately is as vital to a speaker as using numbers accurately to a accountant. Never use a word unless you are sure of its meaning. If you are not sure, look up the word in the dictionary. As you prepare your speeches, ask yourself constantly, “What do I really want to say? What do I really mean?” Choose words that are precise and accurate.
演讲者准确地使用语言和会计准确使用数字是一样重要的。确定词意后再措词。如果不确定，请先查词典。当你在准备演讲的时候，要不断地问自己：“我到底要说什么？我到底想表达什么意思？”用词一定要精准。
Using language clearly allows listeners to grasp your meaning immediately. You can ensure this [by using familiar words （that are known to the average person and require no specialized background）; by choosing concrete words in preference to more abstract ones, and by eliminating verbal clutter].
用词清晰可以让听众迅速理解你的意思（抓到你的点）。要做到这一点，就要尽量使用一般人都熟悉的不需要专业知识就能懂的词语；多用具象词汇少用抽象词汇；还有要减少口误。
Using language vividly helps bring your speech to life. One way (to make your speech vivid)|is through imagery，or the creation of word pictures. You can develop imagery by using concrete language, simile, and metaphor. Simile is an explicit comparison between things （that are essentially different yet have something in common）; it always contains the words “like”or “as”. Metaphor is an implicit
comparison between things that are different yet have something in common; it does not contain the w ords “like” or “as”.
生动地用词能让演讲鲜活起来！比喻，这种能产生文字图像的修辞，可以使演讲达到生动的效果。比喻要用具象的语言，分为明喻和隐喻。
明喻是指在本质上有区别但仍然有相同点的事物之间做一个明确的比较，一般句中会含有“像”或“似”。隐喻则是一种隐藏的比较，不会出现like 和as 这些连接词。
Another way to make your speeches vivid is by exploiting the rhythm of language. Four devices for creating rhythm are parallelism, repetition, alliteration, and antithesis. Parallelism is the similar arrangement of a pair or series of related words, phrases, or sentences. Repetition is the use of the same word or set of words at the beginning or end of successive clauses or sentences. Alliteration comes from repeating the initial constant sounds of close or adjoining words. Antithesis is the juxtaposition of contrasting ideas, usually in parallel structure.
我们还可以充分利用语言的节奏感使演讲更加生动活泼。具体有以下四种方式——排比，反复，押头韵和对偶。排比是指把一组或一系列相关的字词句以相似结构排列起来。反复是指在连续几个从句或句子的开头或结尾处使用相同的词和词组。押头韵则是通过重复相邻之间单词首个辅音实现的。对偶通常是用平行的结构将相反的想法并列在一起。
Using language appropriately means adapting to the particular occasion, audience, and topic at hand. It also means developing your own language style instead of trying to copy someone else’s. If your language is appropriate in all respects, your speech is much more likely to succeed.
用语恰当意味着遣词造句要与特定的场合，观众以及谈论的话题相适应。这也意味着你得建立自己的语言风格，不能简单抄袭他人。如果使用的语言与各方面都很契合，那么演讲就更有可能取得成功。
Good speeches are not composed of hot air and unfounded assertions. They need strong supporting materials to bolster the speaker’s point of view.In fact, the skillful use of supporting materials often makes the difference between a good speech and a poor one.The three basic types of supporting materials are examples,statistics and testimony.
好的演讲不能是空话连篇，也不能是一些毫无根据的论断；而是需要有力的论据来支持演讲者的观点。事实上，能否有技巧地使用论据会造成演讲效果的天壤之别。论据有以下三种基本形式：例子，统计资料，引用。
In the course of a speech you may use brief examples—specific instances referred to in passing—and sometimes you may want to give several brief examples in a row to create a stronger impression. Extended examples—often called illustrations, narrations, or anecdotes—are longer and more detailed.Hypothetical examples describe imagery situations and can be quite effective for relating ideas to the audience. All three kinds of examples help to clarify ideas, to reinforce ideas, or to personalize ideas. To be more effective, though, they should be vivid and richly
textured.
在演讲时可以简单举例——即附带地提及几个具体的例子——有时也需要接二连三举例来加深印象。延伸举例——也叫解释、叙述或轶事——更长更详尽。假设举例描述的是想象的情景，能够很好地把想法传达给观众。这三种不同的例子都有助于演讲者清晰地表达观点，强调观点并使之打上演讲者的烙印。当然，要想演讲效果更好，演讲本身必须生动且结构丰富！
Statistics can be extremely helpful in conveying your message, [as long as you use them sparingly and explain them so they are meaningful to your audience.] Above all, you should understand your statistics and use them fairly. Numbers can easily be manipulated and distorted. Make sure {that your figures are representative of {what they claim to measure},that you use statistical measures correctly, and that you take statistics only from reliable sources.}
统计资料非常有助于演讲者传递信息，因为当演讲者适量地运用这些资料并加以解释时，听众就能更好地理解其中的意义。最重要的是，演讲者必须理解这些统计资料并恰当使用。数字很容易被篡改、误报，因此必须确保自己所使用的数据不是张冠李戴的；必须确保自己使用的统计措施是正确的；必须确保自己的统计资料来源是可靠的。
Testimony is especially helpful for student speakers, because they are seldom recognized as expects on their speech topics. Citing the views of people（who are experts）is a good way to make your ideas more credible. When you include testimony in a speech, you can either quote someone verbatim or paraphrase their words. As with statistics, there are guidelines for using testimony.Be sure to quote or paraphrase accurately and to cite qualified unbiased sources. If the source is not generally known to your audience, be certain to establish his or her credentials.
引用他人观点看法对学生演讲者来说尤其有用，因为学生很少会被视为他们演讲相关主题方面的专家。引用专家的观点可以让你的想法更可信。引用的时候，既可以逐字摘抄也可以自己总结一下。和统计资料一样，引用也有原则可循——引用摘抄准确，来源合格无偏见。如果观众对引用来源不太熟悉，一定要（想办法）取得他们的信任。
The impact of a speech is strongly affected by how the speech is delivered. You cannot make a speech without having something to say. But having something to say is not enough.You must also know how to say it.Good delivery does not call attention to itself.It conveys the speaker’s ideas clearly, interestingly, and [without distrac ting the audience].
演讲的效果如何很大程度上取决于演讲是怎么做的。无话可说做不好演讲，但要做好演讲，仅仅有话可说也是远远不够的，还要知道如何说话才行。好的演讲不是要唤起观众对演讲本身的注意，而是要向观众清晰有趣地传递演讲者的想法，同时还要有观众聚精会神地聆听。
There are four basic methods of delivering a speech: reading verbatim from a manuscript, reciting a memorized text, speaking with PowerPoint, and speaking extemporaneously, or impromptu. The last of these—speaking extemporaneously—is the method (you probably will use for classroom speeches and for most speeches
outside the classroom). When speaking extemporaneously, you will have only a brief set of notes or a speaking outline. Speaking with PowerPoint is widely used now and very effective indeed.
演讲有四种最基本的方法：照本宣科式；背诵式；ppt辅助演讲式和即兴演讲式。最后一项即兴演讲是我们在课堂演讲和大部分课外演讲中都要用到的方法.即兴演讲时，我们手上只有简单的笔记或演讲提纲。现在，用ppt辅助演讲十分普遍，效果显著。
Certainly there are other factors you should consider, such as personal appearance, bodily action, gestures, eye contact, volume, pauses and so on. By paying enough attention to what is mentioned above, you may present an effective speech.
当然还要考虑其他因素——譬如演讲者的个人形象，肢体语言，眼神交流，声音的抑扬顿挫等等。尽量注意上述问题，演讲就会成功！
Unit 2 Energy in Transition
能源转型
The era of cheap and convenient sources of energy is coming to an end. A transition to more expensive but less polluting sources must now be managed.
能源资源价格低廉、使用便捷的时代已经过去了，目前应向尽管价格较高、但污染较小的资源转变。
John P. Holdren
Understanding this transition requires a look at the two-sided connection between energy and human well-being. Energy contributes positively to well-being by providing such consumer services as heating and lighting as well as serving as a necessary input to economic production. But the costs of energy －including not only the money and other resources devoted to obtaining and exploiting it but also environmental and sociopolitical impacts －detract from well-being.
１．要了解这一转变，首先需要考察一下能源和人类幸福的双重关系。能源为人类提供了诸如取暖、照明等消费服务的同时，也为经济生产活动提供必要投入，从这个意义上讲，能源为人类幸福做出了积极贡献。然而，人类为利用能源所付出的代价却削弱了能源为其带来的利益，这种代价不仅包括为获取和利用能源所投入的资金和其他资源，而且包含了能源开发和利用所产生的环境影响和社会政治影响。
For most of human history, the dominant concerns about energy have centered on the benefit side of the energy －well-being equation. Inadequacy of energy resources or (more often) of the technologies and organizations for harvesting, converting, and distributing those resources has meant insufficient energy benefits and hence inconve nience, deprivation and constraints on growth. The 1970’s, then, represented a turning point. After decades of constancy or decline in monetary costs －and of relegation of environmental and sociopolitical costs to secondary status －energy was seen to be getting costlier in all respects. It began to be plausible that excessive energy costs could pose threats on a par with those of insufficient supply. It also became possible to think that expanding some forms of energy supply could create costs exceeding the benefits.
２．人类历史发展长河中，人们主要关心的是能源和人类安康等式中有利的一面。能源资源不足或者（更经常）开采、加工和分配这些资源所需技术和机构的不足，会影响能源为人类带来的利益，对人类也就意味着不方便、损失以及对增长的各种限制。到了20世纪70年代，出现了一个转折点。此前的几十年中，能源的资金成本一直保持稳定，甚至有所下降，而且，其所牵扯的环境成本和社会政治成本一直处于次要地位。但是20世纪70年代开始，开发和利用能源的多方成本均显著增长。人们自然有理由认为：高昂的能源成本所带来的威胁已同能源供应不足所产生的威胁不相上下。同时，也有人担心，依靠扩大能源资源增加供应所需付出的代价，也许大于其所带来的利益。
The crucial question at the beginning of the 1990’s is whether the trend that began in the 1970’s will prove to be temporary or permanent. Is the era of cheap energy really over, or will a combination of new resources, new technology and changing geopolitics bring it back? One key determinant of the answer is the staggering scale of
energy demand brought forth by 100 years of unprecedented population growth, coupled with an equally remarkable growth in per capita demand of industrial energy forms. It entailed the use of dirty coal as well as clean; undersea oil as well as terrestrial; deep gas as well as shallow; mediocre hydroelectric sites as well as good ones; and deforestation as well as sustainable fuelwood harvesting.
３．20世纪90年代初期人们关注的焦点在于，这种始于70年代的能源发展趋势是暂时的还是长远的。廉价能源时代是真正一去不复返，还是通过开发新能源、应用新技术、改革地缘政治秩序等措施，有可能重登历史舞台？回答这个问题的一个关键因素是过去100年以来因人口空前增长带来的令人瞠目的能源需求以及同样使人无所应对的人均工业能源需求。急剧增长的能源需求使得人类对能源的使用无所不用其极：不管是清洁煤炭还是劣质煤炭（或“无矸煤还是有矸煤”），见煤就挖；无论是陆上石油还是海底石油，深层气还是浅层气，见油气就采；水电站建设不论适宜与否，见水就上；一边绿化造林以求薪材可持续发展，一边却砍树毁林。
Except for the huge pool of oil underlying the Middle East, the cheapest oil and gas are already gone. Even if a few more giant oil fields are discovered, they will make little difference a gainst consumption on today’s scale. Oil and gas will have to come increasingly, for most countries, from deeper in the earth and from imports whose reliability and affordability cannot be guaranteed.
４.除了中东地区蕴藏着巨大的石油资源，地球上廉价的油气资源已经不复存在了。即使偶尔找到几个大的油田，同当今巨大的能源消耗相比，也是杯水车薪。对于大多数国家来说，油气资源越来越多地依赖进口，且不说进口油气资源的可靠性无法得到保障，其对进口国的支付能力也是一个考验。
There are a variety of other energy resources that are more abundant than oil and gas. Coal, solar energy, and fission and fusion fuels are the most important ones. But they all require elaborate and expensive transformation into electricity or liquid fuels in order to meet society’s needs. None has very good prospects for delivering large quantities of electricity at costs comparable to those of the cheap coal-fired and
hydro power plants of the 1960’s. It appears, then, that expensive energy is a permanent condition, even without allowing for its environmental costs.
５.诚然，其他许多资源的储量大于石油和天然气，最重要的有煤、太阳能、聚变裂变燃料等。但是这些能源转化成电力或液体燃料，以满足社会需求，需要经过技术复杂、成本昂贵的转化过程。同20世纪60 年代成本低廉的燃煤火电站和水力发电站相比，仅从成本考虑，以上各种资源用于大规模发电的可能性极小。因此，即使不考虑能源开采的环境成本，能源价格居高不下已成无可改变的定局。The capacity of the environment to absorb the effluents and other impacts of energy technologies is itself a finite resource. The finitude is manifested in two basic types of environmental costs. External costs are those imposed by environmental disruptions on society but not reflected in the monetary accounts of the buyers and sellers of the energy. “Internalized costs” are increases in monetary costs imposed by measures, such as pollution-control devices, aimed at reducing the external costs.
６.环境吸纳由于能源利用而产生的废弃物和其他影响的能力本身也是有限度的，表现在两方面的环境成本上。所谓“外延成本”即由于环境遭到破坏对社会造成的影响，但尚未反映到能源买卖双方的交易价格上；所谓“内涵成本”即为降低
外延成本而采取的各种措施（如污染防治措施）所引起的货币成本的增长。
Both types of environmental costs have been rising for several reasons. First, the declining quality of fuel deposits and energy-conversion sites to which society must now turn means more material must be moved or processed, bigger facilities must be constructed and longer distances must be traversed. Second, the growing magnitude
of effluents from energy systems has led to saturation of the environment’s capacity to absorb such effluents without disruption. Third, the monetary costs of controlling pollution tend to increase with the percentage of pollutants removed.
７.两种环境成本均一直呈增长趋势，原因是多方面的。首先，社会发展所依赖的燃料矿藏和加工地质量下降，必然要求矿物运输和加工的数量增加、设施扩大、运输距离延长。第二，能源利用所产生的废弃物不断增加，使得环境自我净化能力达到了极限。第三，污染防治所需的资金成本亦将随着消除污染物比例的提高而提高。
Despite these expenditures, the remaining uninternalized environmental costs have been substantial and in many cases are growing. Those of greatest concern are the risk of death or disease as a result of emissions or accidents at energy facilities and the impact of energy supplied on the global ecosystem and on international relations.
８.尽管代价高昂，尚未内化的环境成本一直居高不下，并在许多情形下呈增长趋势，其中最引人关注的是由能源设施排放废物或发生事故所带来的死亡和疾病，以及由于能源供应对全球生态系统和国际关系造成的影响。
The impacts of energy technologies on public health and safety are difficult to pin down with much confidence. In the case of air pollution from fossil fuels, in which the dominant threat to public health is thought to be particulates formed from sulfur dioxide emissions, a consensus on the number of deaths caused by exposure has proved impossible. Widely differing estimates result from different assumptions about fuel compositions, air pollution control technology, power-plant sitting in relation to population distribution, meteorological conditions affecting sulfate formation, and, above all, the relation between sulfate concentrations and disease.
９.能源技术对于大众健康和安全所造成的影响难以确定。以矿物燃料造成的空气污染为例，一般认为其对大众健康的主要危害是由排放的二氧化硫形成的微粒，但接触这种污染空气究竟会导致多少人死亡，却无法取得一致意见。各种估算数据千差万别，原因在于对以下各种因素的分析各不相同，比如燃料构成、空气污染防治技术、发电厂选址同人口分布之间的关系、气象条件对硫化物形成的影响，最重要的是硫化物浓度与疾病之间的关系。
Large uncertainties also apply to the health and safety impacts of nuclear fission. In this case, differing estimates result in part from differences among sites and reactor types, in part from uncertainties about emissions from fuel-cycle steps that are not yet fully operational (especially fuel reprocessing and management of uranium-mill tailings) and in part from different assumptions about the effects of exposure to
low-dose radiation. The biggest uncertainties, however, relate to the probabilities and consequences of large accidents at reactors, at reprocessing plants and in the transport of wastes.
10.同样，核反应堆对于大众健康和安全的影响亦无法确定。对此种影响的各种估测，既有来自关于反应堆选址和类型的不同观点，又有因为核燃料反应过程(尤
其是核燃料回收以及铀选矿尾矿管理)还不完备，这些环节所产生的废弃物究竟会产生何种影响尚无法确定；同时还有因为对于人类接触少量核辐射所造成的后果各执己见。然而，最大的不确定性来自核反应堆、重新加工工厂以及核废料运输过程中可能发生重大事故的概率及所造成的后果。
Altogether, the ranges of estimated hazards to public health from both coal-fired and nuclear-power plants are so wide as to extend from negligible to substantial in comparison with other risks to the population. There is little basis, in these ranges, for preferring one of these energy sources over the other. For both, the very size of the uncertainty is itself a significant liability.
11.同人类面临的其他威胁相比，火电厂和核电厂危害大众健康的程度究竟有多大，众说纷纭，莫衷一是。有的人认为这种影响微不足道，可以忽略不计；也有人认为这种影响程度严重、危害巨大。无论影响大小，都没有理由对种种能源亲此疏彼。无论是核电还是火电，其对人类的危害都无法确定，这本身就是一大憾事。
Often neglected, but no less important, is the public health menace from traditional fuels widely used for cooking and water heating in the developing world. Perhaps 80 percent of global exposure to particulate air pollution occurs indoors in developing countries, where the smoke from primitive stoves is heavily laden with dangerous hydrocarbons. A disproportionate share of this burden is borne, moreover, by women (who do the cooking) and small children (who indoors with their mothers).
12.发展中国家普遍用于做饭烧水的传统燃料对大众健康造成的危害常常不为人们所关注，但同样十分严重。全球大约80%的颗粒空气污染来自发展中国家的室内烧煮，原始炉灶排出的烟气中含有大量有害的烃（或碳氢化合物），而且这种有害物质的受害者往往是妇女（室内烧煮的主要承担者）和儿童（长时间同母亲一起呆在室内）。
The ecological threats posed by energy supply are even harder to quantify than the threats to human health and safety from effluents and accidents. Nevertheless, enough is known to suggest they portend even larger damage to human well-being. This damage potential arises from the combination of two circumstances.
13.同排放的废弃物和能源设施事故对大众健康造成的危害相比，能源利用对生态系统的威胁更难以量化。然而，根据已有认识足以判断这种威胁对人类健康造成的损失将会更大。这种潜在的损失是由两种情形同时存在导致的
First, civilization depends heavily on services provided by ecological and geophysical processes such as building and fertilizing soil, regulating water supply, controlling pests and pathogens, and maintaining a tolerable climate; yet it lacks the knowledge and the resources to replace nature’s services with technology. Second, human activities are now clearly capable of disrupting globally the processes that provide these services. Energy supply, both industrial and traditional, is responsible for a striking share of the environmental impacts of human activity. The environmental transition of the past 100 years －driven above all by a 20-fold increase in
fossil-fuel use and augmented by a tripling in the use of traditional energy forms －has amounted to no less than the emergence of civilization as a global ecological and geochemical force.
14.首先，人类文明严重依赖于各种生态和地球物理过程所提供的各种服务，诸
如造土培肥（或土壤的形成与增肥）、水源调节、病虫害控制、适宜气候的维持等等。但是，人类缺乏知识和资源来利用技术代替自然界所提供的各种服务。其次，人类活动显然能够在全球范围破坏提供这些服务的进程。无论是工业能源还是传统能源使用，在人类活动引起的环境问题中均占有很大比重。过去100年以来的环境巨变（首要驱动因素是化石燃料的使用增长了20倍，同时传统能源的使用增长了3倍），可以说无异于人类文明作为一支全球范围内的生态和地球化学力量的崛起过程。
Of all environmental problems, the most threatening, and in many respects the most intractable, is global climate change. And the greenhouse gases most responsible for the danger of rapid climate change come largely from human endeavors too massive, widespread and central to the functioning of our societies to be easily altered: carbon dioxide (CO2) from deforestation and the combustion of fossil fuels; methane from rice paddies, cattle gusts and the exploitation of oil and natural gas; and nitrous oxides from fuel combustions and fertilizer use.
15.在诸多环境问题中，对人类威胁最大、在许多情况下却又最让人类无计可施的是全球气候变化。而对气候剧变最起作用的温室气体主要来自人类活动，这些活动规模之大、范围之广、对人类社会运转作用之大，都无法轻易改变。这些气体包括：由于毁林和燃烧矿物燃料所造成的二氧化碳，由秸秆、牲畜粪便和使用石油天然气所排放的甲烷，以及由于燃料燃烧和施肥所排放的一氧化二氮。The only other external cost that might match the devastating impact of global climate change is the risk of causing or aggravating large-scale military conflict. One such threat is the potential for conflict over access to petroleum resources. Another threat is the link between nuclear energy and the spread of nuclear weapons. The issue is hardly less complex and controversial than the link between CO2 and climate; many analysts, including me, think it is threatening indeed.
16.其他唯一能同全球气候变化所造成的灾难性影响相提并论的外化成本是发生或恶化大规模军事冲突的可能。其中潜在的威胁是为争夺石油资源而引起的冲突。另一个威胁则来自核能和核武器扩散之间的联系，这种联系的复杂性几乎不亚于二氧化碳和气候之间的关系。许多分析家（包括本人）均认为这种关系十分危险
Do Traffic Tickets Save Lives?
交通罚单能救命吗？
Pity the poor traffic cop. He's the last guy you want to see in your rear-view mirror when you're speeding down the highway. Why isn't he out looking for murderers instead of nailing drivers for minor infractions of the law?
哎，这可怜的交警。他是你在高速公路上疾驰时最不愿意在后视镜里看见的人。他为什么不去抓那些杀人犯，却在这儿为了一点儿芝麻大的交通违规对司机们穷追不舍？
Well, according to a major research project by scientists in Canada and California, that cop just might be saving your life. Or the life of someone else.
然而,根据加拿大和加利福尼亚科学家们的一项重要研究，那位警察也许恰恰是在救你的命，或者救別的什么人的命。
The researchers have found that a traffic ticket reduces a driver's chance of being involved in a fatal accident by a whopping 35 percent, at least for a few weeks. The effect doesn't last long, however. Within three to four months, the lead foot is back on the pedal and the risk of killing yourself or someone else is back up to where it was before that cop stared you in the eye and wrote out that expensive citation.
研究者们发现一张交通罚单能让司机至少在几周内遭遇重大车祸的概率降低35%。似是这个作用不会持续很长。三四个月后，那只脚又会回到油门儿上去，置自己或別人于死地的危险率又和警察瞪着你开出巨额罚单前一样高了。
The bottom line, according to the research, published in the June 28 issue of The Lancet, is that traffic tickets save lives. Maybe thousands of lives, every year. Yet traffic laws are enforced sporadically, almost as if by whim, partly because people just don't like traffic cops, and there are lots of other things for the government to spend money on than enforcing highway safety laws.
根据6月28日发表在《柳叶刀》上的研究，最根本的一点就是交通罚单能救命，它很可能每年能救成千上万条命。然而交通法规只是零星地被实施，就像心血来潮似的，部分原因是人们不喜欢罚单，而且除了实施髙速公路安全法，政府部门还有很多其他地方要花钱。
The Grim Statistics
无情的统计数椐
That attitude needs to be changed, according to Donald A. Redelmeier of the University of Toronto and Robert J. Tibshirani of Stanford University. Both men are medical researchers, and this isn't the first time they've taken a hard look at highway safety. Their 1998 study caused a stir when they linked cell phone usage to traffic accidents. Now they're back, saying traffic tickets are good for our health.
多伦多大学的热德尔美尔和斯坦福大学的提波施拉尼认为这种态度需要改变。他们俩都是医学研究者，这已不是他们第一次盯着高速公路安全问题了。他们俩1998年的研究引起了轰动，当时他们认为打手机与交通事故有关联。现在他们又来了，说交通罚单对我们的健康有好处。
They were prodded into this project by some very grim statistics. Each year, more than a million persons die in traffic accidents worldwide. If that many people died of SARS in a year, the public response would probably border on hysteria, but we have
come to accept traffic fatalities as a way of life.
他们之所以参与这个项目是受到一些残酷无情的统计数据的驱使。每年，全世界有100多万人死于交通事故。如果一年内那么多人死于非典的话，大家很可能会恐惧得发疯了，然而我们对交通亊故死亡率却习以为常了。
In addition, another 25 million people around the world are permanently disabled by traffic accidents, and many of them — as well as the fatalities — are children.
另外，还有2 500万人因交通事故永远残废了，而且他们当中(包括死去的)很多是孩子。
Taking It Easy After a Ticket?
接到罚中处之泰然？
When Redelmeier and Tibshirani and fellow researcher Leonard Evans set out to see if traffic tickets really do any good, they found an enormous resource in the Canadian province of Ontario. The full driving record of every licensed driver there was made available to them, warts and all, giving the researchers a huge data base of more than 10 million licensed drivers, 8,975 of whom were involved in a fatal accident during the 11-year period covered by the research, from 1988 through 1998.
当热德尔美尔、提波施拉尼和他们的共同研究人员伦纳德?伊凡斯研究交通罚单是否真能起到好作用时，他们在加拿大的安大略省发现了数量巨大的司机资料。他们在那儿能看到每个有驾照的人的全部记录，这样他们就有了一个良莠俱存的超过一千万个持照司机的巨大数据库。其中8 975个司机在此项研究覆盖的1988-1998共11年中曾出过重大交通事故
"We looked at the month prior to a fatal accident, and the number of traffic convictions, and then the same month in the year before," says Tibshirani, a statistician. "What we found was that there were fewer tickets in the month before a fatal accident than there were a year before, and that suggests there's a protective effect of having a ticket."
统计学家提波施拉尼说:“我们看了一下出重大事故前一个月的交通罚单数和前
一年同一个月的罚单数，发现出重大事故前一个月的罚单要比前一年同一个月的罚单少，这说明罚单有保护作用。”
In other words, when the number of citations went down, the number of fatal accidents went up the following month, and when the number of tickets went up, the number of fatal accidents dropped the following month. The analysis shows that fatal accidents declined by 35 percent because of citations.
换言之，当罚单数下降时，重大事故率在接下来这个月就会上升；而当罚单数上升时，重大事故率在接下来这个月就会下降。分析表明罚单能使重大事故率下降35%。
Apparently, people just drove more cautiously following a traffic citation, but that only lasted a maximum of four months, the researchers say. After that brief respite, it was back to business as usual for most motorists.
显然，人们在拿到交通罚单后开车会更谨慎，但这种谨慎最长只会持续4个月。对多数司机来说，经过这短暂的歇息，一切又都恢复到从前了。
Citations’ Effects Consistent
罚单的持续作用
The scientists also turned up some surprising results.
科学家们还出示了一些令人吃惊的研究结果。
"Most of the crashes did not involve alcohol and were not at an intersection," they report in their research paper. Most occurred during the summer months when the streets were dry (65 percent) rather than wet (18 percent) or covered with snow (17 percent).
“多数撞车不是因为酒后驾车，也不是发生在十字路口，”他们在研究报告中这样报道。多数事故发生在夏季，当时的道路干燥（65%）而不湿滑（18%），也没有雪覆盖（17%）。
They also found that the "relative risk reduction associated with traffic convictions was remarkably consistent among subgroups of licensed drivers," so the same results apply to women as well as men, regardless of age, prior driving record, and other personal data.
他们还发现“在有驾照的那组司机中拿到罚单后的事故减少率的持续性是显著的"，因此同样的结论适用于妇女和男人，而与年龄因素、以前的驾驶记录和其他个人资料无关。
Men, however, were involved in far more fatal accidents than women (73 percent to 27 percent) and the most accident-prone age was between 30 and 50. Alcohol was detected in only 7 percent of the accidents.
但是，男人要比女人更容易出严重交通亊故(73%比27%)，而且最容易出事故的年龄是在30-50岁之间。酒后驾车只占事故的7%。
The researchers also addressed the commonly held belief that traffic citations cause more accidents than they prevent because so many people are killed during police chases. They found that only 24 deaths could be linked to writing citations during the 11-year period. That included 17 suspects, five bystanders and two police officers. "The typical suspect who died was a 26-year-old man pursued by police after fleeing a spot check for alcohol or a speeding violation," they report. The two police officers were killed in separate events when they were hit by a car while writing a ticket for another motorist.
研究者们还澄清了一种普遍的想法：交通罚单引起的交通事故比防止的多，因为很多人是在警察追他们时丧生的。他们发现在过去的11年中只有24起死亡事故和罚单有关，这包括17个被追的司机、5个路人和2位警察。“最典型的一例是一个26岁的男子，因想逃避酒精和超速违规的现场检查而被警察穷追不舍，”他们报告说。有2位警察死于与这互不相关的事件中，当时他们正在给另一个摩托车驾驶员开罚单。
Who Really Pays?
到底谁付出代价？
The researchers admit there are a few gaps in their findings. The statistics do not include Ontario drivers who may have been involved in a fatal accident somewhere outside that province. Nor can they say that every traffic ticket leads to a reduction in accidents. But the statistics suggest a correlation between the number of citations and the number of fatalities.
研究者们承认在他们的研究中有一些漏洞。统计数字不包括有可能在省外某地出
严重交通事故的安大略省司机。他们也不能说每张交通罚单都能降低事故率。但是数据显示交通罚单的数量和死亡率之间呈相关性。
They also point out that the innocent are often made to pay the price for careless drivers.
他们还指出为粗心大意的司机付出代价的经常是那些无辜受害者。
"Unlike other common diseases, the victims are often young and need significant subsequent care for decades. Most crashes are unintended, unexpected, and could have been prevented by a small difference in driver behavior."
“和其他常见病不一样，受害人通常很年轻，需要以后几十年连续不断的照顾。大多数事故是无意的，意料之外的，只要司机在驾驶上稍有不同就能避免。”So the next time you see that cop in your rear-view mirror, give him, or her, a broad smile.
因此下次你要是在后视镜里看见那位警察，一定要对他/她热情微笑。
Yeah, right.