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美英报刊阅读教程Lesson 39 课文

美英报刊阅读教程Lesson 39 课文
美英报刊阅读教程Lesson 39 课文

Lesson 39-There Be War?

Probably, unless Pervez Musharraf can rein in the militants1 who are attacking India

Even before the attacks last week on Indian military camps in Kashmir, India and Pakistan had almost a million men squared up along their common border.2 Now it looks as though preparations for war are being accelerated. This week, Pakistan?s ambassador was expelled from Delhi, the coast guard and the merchant fleet were placed under the command of India … s navy, and the border security forces under that of its army. There has been heavy shelling across the line of control in Kashmir. On May 21st the most moderate of the main Kashmiri separatists, a man India hoped to talk peace to, was murdered, presumably by one of the many militant jihadi groups3 that operate out of Pakistani-held Kashmir and who oppose such talks. The next day India?s prime minister told front-line troops that it was “time for a decisive fight”.

War is not yet inevitable. Sensible. military men in India are urging restraint, well understanding that even a limited reprisal — an air-strike perhaps, on the militants … camps — could provoke escalation that might easily spin out of control. The fact that there are nuclear arms on both sides is terrifying on one level, but optimists hope that it will also act as a brake. Yet with each provocation from the Pakistani side, it becomes harder for the Indian government to do nothing —especially now that the “Bush doctrine”4 is available as ready-made justification for full-blooded reprisal against acts of terror.

At least the world recognizes the danger. Foreign peace-makers are flocking to the region. Jack Straw, the British foreign secretary, is visiting next week: Richard Armitage, America … s deputy secretary of state, shortly after that. But India … s leadership now views General Musharraf much as Ariel Sharon views Yasser Arafat: as unable or unwilling (and in all probability both) to rein in the terrorists —and, therefore, as not worth talking to. Since an attack on India … s parliame nt building last December, there has been no negotiation whatsoever between India and Pakistan. There is no denying that the general has disappointed. The world applauded in January when he promised to crush extremism, and stop his country being used as a terrorist base. But the delivery has been botched. Yes, five extremist Islamic groups were banned, and, 2,000 of then- members arrested. But new groups have sprung up in their place, most of the detainees have been released and, says India, infiltration in to India Kashmir is as active as ever. As the snows melt in Kashmir?s passes, the latest attacks appear to confirm the charge.

Could the general rein in the militants, even if he wanted to? Nobody knows for sure. The sacrifices already made for the Kashmiri cause are so great that ending all terrorist activity may well be impossible. The general probably calculates, too, that America will not press him overly hard so long as it needs his co-operation in the hunt for al-Qaeda5. This would be a blunder on the American side, helping to make more likely a war whose course nobody can foresee. It is essential for America to use all its muscle to force General Musharraf to do everything he can to end cross-border attacks, and to verify his compliance. There was good news this week, in a renewed pledge from the Pakistani government not to allow its territory to be used for acts of terrorism “in the name of Kashmir”. But India will want more than just more words: and besides, the general himself has previously said that attacks on Indian military targets in Kashmir are legitimate struggle, not terrorism.

It would, however, be wrong to heap all the blame at Pakistan?s door.6 The encouragement of

Pakistani security apparatus is only one of the things that make the jihadis such an intractable problem. Another is the way in which mainly Hindu India has treated mainly Muslim Kashmir since independence. The record of abuses committed by the hundreds of thousands of troops stationed there is a blot on the reputati on of the world? s largest democracy, as is India? s undermining, time and again, of Kashmir local governments that flirted too obviously with separatism.7 In Pakistani eyes, arming the jihadis is the only available response to an India that refuses to compromise. Land for peace has never featured in the Indian lexicon.8 Self-determination for Kashmir was promised in 1947, but never granted. The most that is on offer is a degree more autonomy: not enough to satisfy the Pakistani side.9

Talk, at least

7. So any genuinely useful intervention by the Americans must also contain something for Pakistan. What might that be? One vital first step would be to press India back to the negotiating table. Last July at a summit in Agra an accord of sorts10 was available that would at least have got negotiations going. It was wrecked mainly by Indian intransigence (though General Musharraf s grandstanding also played into the hands of the Indian hardliners11). There is no easy way to make India more accommodating. India holds most of Kashmir, has the larger army and enjoys a robust economy. But, India craves recognition as a great power. It must be made to understand that this will not come until it is ready to make a much more concerted effort to engage its neighbour12. Pride has to be swallowed, on both sides. The alternative is fearsome.

From The Economist, May 25,2002

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