2013版《经济学人》中英文对照：底线

2013版《经济学人》中英文对照：底线_考研英语_考研1号网——专注考研！

Multilevel marketing多层次营销

The bottom line

底线

Herbalife is shorted康宝莱被做空

Jan 5th 2013 | NEW YORK | from the print edition

“IF I am right, its share price will go to zero,” says Bill Ackman, the founder of Pershing Square Capital, a hedge fund, who insists he has never felt so confident in shorting a company’s stock. On December 20th he invited an audience of his peers to hear his declaration of war against Herbalife, a seller of dietary supplements and vitamins. His claim that the 32-year-old company is an “illegal pyramid scheme” had an immediate impact: Herbalife’s share price fell from over $40 a couple of days before the presentation to $26 on December 24th. However, Herbalife is fighting back. Its managers deny Mr Ackman’s accusations and promise a detailed rebuttal soon. The company’s shares have rallied, ending 2012 at almost $33, a market capitalisation of around $3.6 billion.

“我要是没错，康宝莱的股票会跌得一文不值。”对冲基金潘兴广场资本公司的创始人比尔?阿克曼(Bill Ackman)如是说。他强调对于做空康宝莱他信心十足。12月20日，他请来一批同行，见证了他对出售保健品和维生素的康宝莱公司宣战。比尔?阿克曼声称这家有32年历史的公司是个“非法传销组织”，这话立竿见影：12月24日，康宝莱的股价从比尔?阿克曼放话前几天的40多美元跌至26美元。不过，康宝莱正在实施反击。公司管理层否认比尔?阿克曼的声讨，并承诺很快会详细地对此进行反驳。目前康宝莱股价已经反弹，在2012年底回升至将近33美元，市值约36亿美元。

Herbalife is one of the world’s best-known “multilevel marketing”companies, along with Avon and Amway. Hordes of independent individual sellers, many sporting badges with the slogan “Lose weight now. Ask me how”, distribute its products. These sellers are recruited by people on a higher tier of the marketing structure, who receive a slice of the commission on sales made by those whom they recruit.

康宝莱和雅芳、安利一样，是世界知名的“多层次营销”公司之一。一大群独立的个体推销员到处推销着康宝莱的产品，很多还戴着显眼的标志，上面写着“减肥此刻起，秘诀康宝莱”。公司营销体系中级别更高的人将这些推销员招至麾下，并从他们的销售产品获得的佣金中抽取部分。

Multilevel marketing is a huge business. In 2011 direct selling (the vast majority of it through multilevel marketing) by around 16m distributors generated sales of almost $30 billion in America. Worldwide, some 92m distributors grossed $154 billion, according to the Direct Selling Association, an industry group.

多层次营销是盘大生意。根据行业组织直销协会的数据，2011年，美国约1600万个直销人员通过直销(其中大部分是通过多层次营销)获得了将近300亿美元的销售额。而全球大约9600万个直销人员的总收入则为1540亿美元。

Multilevel marketers take pains to distinguish their businesses (which are legal) from pyramid schemes (which are not). In a pyramid, recruitment is everything. People pay to participate, and are rewarded by finding others willing to pay to join. At some point the supply of new recruits dries up and the pyramid collapses.

多层次营销公司都竭力将自己的业务(合法)和传销(非法)划清界线。在一个传销组织里，发展下线才是生存之道。人们掏钱加入传销组织，又通过发展下线来收取回报。到了招不到人的时候，传销组织便土崩瓦解。

Multilevel marketing is not like this. Legitimate firms rely on sales of

real products for their income, not on fees charged to new recruits. Mr Ackman contends that Herbalife relies on recruitment, not sales of its products to genuine customers (as opposed to new distributors, who are required to buy a batch to join the sales force). Michael Johnson, Herbalife’s chief executive, retorts that over 90% of product sales are outside its distribution network.

多层次营销却不同。合法的公司是靠出售实际商品，而不是向新成员收取费用来赚钱的。比尔?阿克曼坚称康宝莱赚钱靠的是不断招人，并没有将产品卖给真正的顾客(而是卖给新加入的推销员，他们加入时必须先购买一批产品)。康宝莱CEO 迈克?约翰逊(Michael Johnson,)反驳说公司超过90%的产品都是卖到经销网外的。

2013版《经济学人》中英文对照：底线_考研英语_考研1号网——专注考研！

Mr Ackman says Herbalife’s marketing materials give a misleading impression of how easy it is to make money by selling its products. By his calculations, only 0.14% of Herbalife’s 2.7m sellers earn more than $20,000 a year gross, and 93% earn no commissions at all. Herbalife is continually entering new markets, from Mexico to Ghana, but the supply of virgin markets may soon dry up, claims Mr Ackman.

比尔?阿克曼又称，康宝莱公司的销售资料让大家误以为推销其产品很容易赚钱。据他估计，康宝莱的两百七十万推销员中只有0.14%每年总收入超过两万美元，93%的人根本没有佣金。他还说，从墨西哥到加纳，康宝莱正在不断地开拓新市场，但新市场很快就会被开拓殆尽。

Mr Ackman is not always right, but he has made a packet by shorting overpriced firms such as MBIA, a bond insurer. His attack on Herbalife follows tough questioning of the company in May, shortly after its share price reached an all-time high of $73, by David Einhorn, another hedge funder who made a fortune by calling the financial crisis correctly.

比尔?阿克曼不一定对，不过靠卖空一些公司(如债券保险公司MBIA)股价过高的股票，他已经大赚了一笔。5月份，康宝莱股价创73美元新高后不久，另一家对冲基金的投资者大卫?霍恩(David Einhorn)严厉地质疑康宝莱，接着比尔?阿克曼就开始抨击康宝莱。大卫?霍恩曾因准确预测金融危机而大赚一笔。

However, in July Anne Coughlan of Northwestern University’s Kellogg business school published a paper arguing that Herbalife is legitimate, and “fails to meet the fundamental test of a pyramid scheme, because its compensation is directly related to sales

volume (not to recruiting) and therefore its business cannot collapse under the weight of its compensation plan.” (Herbalife helped finance the paper.)

但是，西北大学凯洛格商学院的安妮?考夫兰(Anne Coughlan)在7月发表文章指出，康宝莱公司是合法的，不符合“非法传销组织”的基本条件，因为其推销员的报酬与销售量(非发展新成员 )直接挂钩，所以在这种报酬机制下，公司不会跨台。(此文由康宝莱公司提供赞助。)

As The Economist went to press, regulators had not reacted publicly to Mr Ackman’s accusations. Much may depend on Herbalife’s detailed response at an event for analysts scheduled for January 10th. Analysts will want to see convincing evidence that most of its sales really are to people outside its network of distributors.

本期《经济学人》付印时，监管部门仍未对比尔?阿克曼的声讨做出公开回应。康宝莱计划在1月10日面向分析人士针对比尔?阿克曼的声讨进行详细的回应，监管部门的态度很可能取决于这次回应。分析人士希望看到的是，康宝莱能拿出有力的证据证明自身大部分的销售额的确来自经销网外。

One thing is certain. Even if he is right, it will not add to Mr Ackman’s vast fortune. He describes his campaign against Herbalife as a philanthropic act, and has promised to give his personal share in any profits from shorting its shares to charity.

但有一点是肯定的：哪怕比尔?阿克曼说得没错，其巨额财富也不会因此增加分毫。他说对抗康宝莱只是出于慈善，并已承诺将做空康宝莱股票所得的个人收益全数捐给慈善机构。