经济学人双语版1

Europe's debt crisis

欧洲债务危机

Spot the pattern

看变化模式

Jul 5th 2011, 18:55 by R.A. | WASHINGTON

2011年7月5日18：55 R.A./华盛顿

HERE'S a chart showing the yields on 10-year Greek debt over the past three months. See the pattern?

本图显示的是在过去3个月10年期希腊债券的收益率。变化模式看清楚了吧？

There's a spike, followed by a decline, followed by a higher spike, followed by a decline to a higher trough, and so on. European leaders keep taking steps to avert disaster, and each time markets are less assuaged.

有个尖峰，接着是下跌，然后又是稍高一些的尖峰，接着跌入一个较高的波谷，如此反复。欧洲国家的领导人一直在采取措施避免灾难，而每一次市场都没有大的起色。

The latest spike corresponds to the stalemate over the IMF's willingness to continue making bail-out payments without a new, long-term rescue package in place (and the corresponding disagreement over how to rollover Greek debt, plus the drama surrounding the passage of Greece's new austerity plan). The IMF agreed to keep paying, French and German banks seemed willing to sign on to a rollover plan, and Greece got its new austerity programme through parliament. But it wasn't long before trouble kicked up again.

最近的尖峰反映了这样一个困境：国际货币基金组织愿意继续救助，但又没有制定出一个长期的一揽子救助计划（同时也反映出如何缓解希腊债务各方存在分歧，以及希腊的新紧缩计划能否通过依然有变数）。国际货币基金组织同意继续提供支付，法国和德国的银行似乎愿意签署资金周转计划书，希腊国会通过了新的紧缩计划。但是，没过多久，麻烦又来了。

Moody's and Standard and Poor's have both suggested that the agreed-upon rollover plan might well constitute a default. Since that's precisely the outcome European leaders were hoping to avoid, this news has sent everyone scurrying to come up with a new and better deal. Meanwhile, Moody's has cut Portugal's debt rating to junk. Portugal may well need a new rescue package, which will surely include debate over the fate of creditors, which will mean more questions about bank finances and more brinksmanship. And the European economy continues to slow, even as the European Central Bank continues to tighten policy.

穆迪和标准普尔都暗示，商定好的周转计划很可能得不到执行。因为这种结果正是欧洲国家的领导人们想避免的，所以这条消息让每个人都急不可待地要制定出一个新的、更好的解决办法。与此同时，穆迪公司已经将葡萄牙的债务评级降至垃圾级。葡萄牙很可能需要一个新的一揽子救援计划，这必将包括对债权人命运的辩论，而辩论的内容将更多的是关于银行财政方面的问题和边缘政策。欧洲经济增长速度持续放缓，尽管欧洲央行继续收紧货币政策。

I don't know that there's any broad lesson here, other than: for all the steps already taken by European leaders, the euro zone hasn't really gotten any closer to solving the underlying issues of insolvency and institutional weakness.

除了以下教训，我不知道还有什么更大的了：虽然欧洲国家的领导人们已经采取了各种措施，但是，欧元区要解决当前国家破产危机和体制上不健全的根本问题，确确实实还有很长的路要走。

Global house prices

全球房价

Rooms with a view

一览全球楼市

Asia’s frothiest housing markets are calming down. Is America’s bottoming?

亚洲泡沫最多的楼市不再蒸蒸日上。美国的楼市触底了吗？

Jul 7th 2011 | WASHINGTON, DC | from the print edition

THE bubble that caused a global recession has been a long time deflating. The American housing market began to decline half a decade ago and hasn’t stopped yet. Prices dropped by 5.1% from the year before, according to the latest S&P/Case-Shiller national index. Among markets tracked by The Economist, only Irish homes have fallen further since 2006. Robert Shiller, one of the fathers of the Case-Shiller index, says more hard times lie ahead. Prices may slide another 10-25%, he reckons, as the economy wrings out the excess supply of the bubble years.

引发全球经济衰退的泡沫一直在破灭，已经历时已久。5年前，美国的楼市就开始衰退了，目前还未停止衰退。根据最新的标普凯斯?席勒全国指数，与一年前相比，房价下跌了5.1%。在《经济学人》追踪的市场中，自2006年以来只有爱尔兰的房价跌得还要厉害。凯斯?席勒指数创始人之一的罗伯特?席勒表示，艰难时期还在后头。他估计，随着经济逐渐耗尽泡沫时期过剩的供应量，房价可能还要再下跌10%-25%。

By our calculations, however, America’s h ousing market has overshot the fair-value mark, as measured by the long-run average ratio of house prices to rents. Rents are rising: an increase in the cost of rental housing contributed to May’s robust American inflation data. With home ow nership looking a better deal, prices should stabilise. The Case-Shiller index posted a month-on-month increase in April for the first time since July 2010. It was not alone in showing gains. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) price series ticked up in April for the first time since May 2010, and the CoreLogic index of home prices, a favourite of the Federal Reserve, notched price rises in both April and May. The pace of sales has been sluggish but an index of pending home sales posted a surprisingly large gain in May.

然而，据我们的统计，通过长期的房价和租金的平均比率来衡量，美国的楼市已经超过合理价值的标准。租金正在上涨：租房成本上升带来了5月份美国强劲的通胀数据。随着拥有住房看起来是更好的选择，房价应该会稳定下来。自2010年7月以来，4月凯斯?席勒指数首次出现了环比上扬。并非只有凯斯?席勒指数呈现了上行趋势。自2010年5月以来，联邦住房金融局的价格系列指数在4月份也出现了首次上升。此外，CoreLogic房价指数（美联储最喜欢参照的指数）在4、5月份都有所上升。尽管销售速度一直相当缓慢，但是住房销售的预期指数在5月份大幅上升，令人吃惊。

The best news of all may be the ongoing improvement in credit conditions. Delinquencies have trended downward since late 2009. Consumer-debt payments relative to incomes are at a 17-year low and household credit scores are rising. Banks are still being stingy with credit but households are better positioned than they were to take advantage of cheaper homes.

或许最好的消息是信贷环境正在改善。自2009年底以来，拖欠债务的情况一直在减少。相对于收入而言的消费者债务支付创17年的低点，家庭的信用分数正在上升。各银行对信贷仍然非常严格，但是与以往相比，现在各家庭做好了更好利用较廉价住房的准备。

Cheapness is not a word to associate with Hong Kong, the most overpriced market in our analysis. House prices in the territory rose by 23.9% year on year in April. The boom may well be coming to an end, however. Like its counterpart on the mainland, Hong Kong’s government is trying to restrain property markets.

A June increase in down-payment requirements is just the latest in a series of measures to cool the housing sector. Sales volumes have declined steadily for six months, and prices are likely to follow.

但是廉价与香港无缘，香港是我们分析中房价过高最严重的市场。4月，香港房价同比上涨了23.9%。然而，繁荣时期很可能已经告一段落。与中国大陆政府一样，香港的政府也在努力遏制房地产市场。6月出台的提高首付要求正是一系列为房地产行业降温的最新举措之一。6个月来，销售

量稳步下降，房价也可能随之下降。

China’s roaring property markets aren’t the only ones in Asia to face a slowdown. In Singapore annual price growth dropped fr om nearly 18% in the fourth quarter of 2010 to 10% in the second quarter of this year. In Australia boom has turned to outright decline. With commodity markets softening, prices have sagged in resource-dependent cities like Brisbane and Perth. South Africa’s once-buoyant market has likewise flipped from rapid growth to retreat.

中国蓬勃发展的房地产市场并不是亚洲唯一面临放缓的市场。新加坡的房价年增长率从2010年第四季度的近18%下降到了今年第二季度的10%。澳大利亚直接从繁荣期进入了衰退期。随着商品市场平静下来，布里斯班和佩思等依靠资源的城市的房价就下跌了。曾经一度蒸蒸日上的南非市场也同样从快速增长变成了衰退。

Moribund markets are the norm in most of Europe but France is bucking the trend. French home prices fell faster than the euro-zone average during the crisis but have rebounded sharply enough to cause some consternation. The ratio of prices to rents is almost 50% above the long-run average. French officials blame tight supply but the government has acknowledged the possibility of “overvaluation”. With housing, there’s always somewhere t o worry about.

对大多数欧洲国家而言，市场停滞不前是常态，但是法国并非如此。在经济危机期间，法国的房价的下跌速度比欧元区国家的平均速度快，但是后来大幅反弹足以让人大吃一惊。房价与租金的比率在50%左右，超过长期的平均值。法国官员指责供应太紧，但是政府也承认有“估值过高”的可能。对于楼市，总有可忧虑之处。

Hope over hype希望高过炒作

A science writer analyses the history of stem-cell research

一位科普作家分析了干细胞的研究史

THE unrelenting pace of scientific accomplishment often outstrips the progress of moral thought, leaving people struggling to make sense, initially at least, of whether heart transplants are ethical or test-tube babies desirable. Over the past three decades scientists have begun to investigate a branch of medicine that offers astonishing promise—the ability to repair the human body and even grow new organs—but which destroys early-stage embryos to do so. In “The Stem Cell Hope” Alice Park, a science writer at Time magazine, chronicles the scientific, political, ethical and personal struggle s of those involved in the work.

科学成就不屈不挠的步伐经常越过道德思想的进步，至少最初让人挣扎在取义之上：心脏移植手术是否符合伦理道德，或者试管婴儿是否值得向往。过去三十年来，科学家们已经开始研究一个医学分支，该分支提供了惊人的希望（能够修复人体，甚至长出新器官），但是这个分支做到这点要破坏早期胚胎。在《时代》杂志的科普作家爱丽丝?帕克所写的《干细胞的希望》中，记载了那些参与这项工作的人在科学、政治、伦理和个人方面的斗争。

Embryonic stem cells are pluripotent: they have the ability to change into any one of the 200-odd types of cell that compose the human body; but they can do so only at a very early stage. Once the bundle has reached more than about 150 cells, they start to specialise. Research into repairing severed spinal cords or growing new hearts has thus needed a supply of stem cells that come from entities that, given a more favourable environment, could instead grow into a baby.

胚胎干细胞是多能的干细胞：它们有能力转变为构成人体的200多种类型细胞中的任何一种；但它们只能在非常早期的阶段做到这点。一旦分裂的细胞束已达到大约150个细胞以上，它们就开始专门分化成一种类型的细胞了。因此，修复断开的脊髓或长出新的心脏的研究需要提供来自实体的干细胞，假如赋予这个实体更加有利的环境，那么它可以成长为一名婴儿。

Immediately after the announcement of the birth of Dolly the sheep—the clone of an adult ewe whose mammary cells Ian Wilmut had tricked into behaving like a developing embryo—American scientists were hauled before the nation’s politicians who were uneasy at the implication that people might also be cloned. Concern at the speed of scientific progress had previously stalled publicly funded research into contentious topics, for example, into in vitro fertilisation. But it did not stop the work from taking place: instead the IVF industry blossomed in the private sector, funded by couples desperate for a baby and investors who had spotted a lucrative new market.

伊恩?威尔莫特将一个成年母羊的乳腺细胞诱发成就象一个发育中的胚胎克隆了多莉羊。在宣布多莉羊诞生后不久，美国科学家纷纷转向这项研究，之后美国政要才对其中人也能克隆的含义感到不安。此前，对科学进步速度的关注让政府资助的研究不涉入有争议的课题，例如，体外授精。但这并没有停止这项工作的开展：取而代之的是试管婴儿行业在私营部门蓬勃发展，而私营部门由求子若渴的夫妇和发现了利润丰厚的新市场的投资者资助。

That is also what happened with human stem cells. After a protracted struggle over whether to ban research outright—which pitted Nancy Reagan, whose husband suffered from Alzheimer’s disease, against a father who asked George Bush’s advisers, “Which one of my children would you kill?”—Mr Bush blocked the use of government money to fund research on any new human embryonic stem-cell cultures. But research did not halt completely: Geron, a biopharmaceuticals company based in Menlo Park, California, had s tarted “to mop up this orphaned innovation”, as Ms Park puts it, by recruiting researchers whose work brought them into conflict with the funding restrictions.

这也是人类干细胞的经历。在是否完全禁止研究的问题上进行了长期争论，南希?里根的丈夫患上了阿尔茨海默氏症，一位父亲问乔治?布什的顾问：“你要杀死我哪个孩子？”，南希杠上了这位父亲，之后布什禁止使用政府的金钱来资助任何新的人类胚胎干细胞培养的研究。但这项研究并没有完全终止：杰龙是一家总部设在美国加利福尼亚州门洛帕克的生物制药公司，正如帕克所说，杰龙的外聘研究人员已经开始“为这项孤儿般的创新做扫尾工作了”，这些研究人员的工作与资金限制有冲突。

Meanwhile, in South Korea a maverick scientist claimed not only to have cloned human embryos but also to have created patient-specific cultures that could, in theory, be used to patch up brain damage or grow a kidney. Alas, he was wrong. But a Japanese scientist did manage to persuade adult skin cells to act like stem cells. If it proves possible to scale up his techniques, that would remove the source of the controversy over stem-cell research.

同时，在韩国一个特立独行的科学家声称，不仅克隆了人类胚胎，而且也制成了特定病人的培养体，从理论上讲，该培养体可以用来修补脑损伤或长出肾脏。可叹的是，他错了。但日本科学家的确设法让成人的皮肤细胞起到干细胞一样的作用。如果证明他的技术可能上规模，将消除对干细胞研究的争论来源。

Three months after he took office, Barack Obama lifted restrictions on federal funding for research on new stem-cell cultures, saying that he thought sound science and moral values were consistent with one another. But progress has been slow: the first human trials in America, involving two people with spinal-cord injuries who have been injected with stem cells developed by Geron, are only just under way. The sick children who first inspired scientists to conduct research into stem cells in order to develop treatments that might help them are now young adults. As Ms Park notes, the fight over stem-cell research is not over, and those who might benefit from stem-cell medicine remain in need.

奥巴马上台三个月后，解除了对联邦资助新干细胞培养研究的限制。奥巴马说，他认为健全的科学和道德观彼此一致。但这方面的研究进展一直缓慢：在美国首次人体试验只是还在进行，有两个脊髓损伤的病人注射了杰龙开发的干细胞。最初促使科学家进行干细胞研究，以开发出可能对他们有所帮助的治疗方法的患病儿童现在已是青壮年。正如帕克指出的，对干细胞研究的战争没有结束，那些可能受益于干细胞药物的人仍然病魔缠身。

Wide-spread confusion

价差扩大的困惑

What, exactly, is the price of oil?

石油价格真相调查

Jun 16th 2011 | from the print edition

FINDING out the price of oil used to be simple. A quick check of either of the two main gauges of international markets—West Texas Intermediate (WTI) or Brent Blend—would suffice. But this year, as oil prices have soared, a gap has opened up between the two benchmark crudes. On June 15th the spread hit a record: close to $23 dollars a barrel.

过去，要得到石油的价格通常非常简单。你只需要快速的查询一下美国西德克萨斯轻质原油（WTI）或者英国北海布伦特原油（Brent Blend）这两个国际市场的石油价格基准即可。但是今年，随着石油价格的飙升，这两个原油基准价格出现了价差增大的情况。在6月15日，两者的价格差创出纪录，达到每桶接近23美元。

For years prices of WTI and Brent were locked together, though the higher-quality American WTI oil generally traded at a premium of a dollar or two to reflect its slightly lower viscosity and sulphur content, which ease refining into petrol, heating oil and other products. Patterns of supply and demand in America, the world’s biggest consumer and importer of oil, rarely diverged much from the rest of the world, where Brent is the main indica tor.

多年来西德克萨斯轻质原油和北海布伦特原油之间的价格差比较稳定，虽然西德克萨斯轻质原油由于其所产的油粘度以及硫含量更低，更易于提炼为汽油，燃料油，和其他产品，从而因其更高的石油品质交易价格会比北海布伦特原油高1到2美元。同时美国是全球最大的石油消费国和进口国，其石油的供求状况一般大致反映了世界上其它地区的供求状况，而后者一般主要通过北海布伦特原油价格反映出来。

That has changed. The contracts for WTI stipulate “for delivery” to windswept Cushing, Oklahoma (population 8,371), which is strategically situated to serve the refineries of the Gulf of Mexico, and thence the petrol-thirsty northern seaboard. This gave oil firms lots of incentive to build pipelines to Cushing: in recent months oil has poured into Cushing’s grow ing and labyrinthine storage facilities.

但如今情况出现了变化，由于俄克拉荷马州库欣，这一拥有8，371人口的多风的城市是西德克萨斯轻质原油的指定的合约交割地，并且为墨西哥湾的炼油厂，以及其身后石油需求量巨大的北方沿海地区提供石油，其地理位置具有重要的战略意义。从而使得石油公司积极主动地建造了很多的石油管道通往库欣：最近几个月以来，石油已经开始输入库欣纵横交错的储油设备中，而且同时还在不断建造新的储油设备。

There it has stayed. A new p ipeline from Canada’s oil sands, which opened in February, and unexpectedly large flows of shale oil from North Dakota’s Bakk en field have coincided with lacklustre oil demand in America. Planning difficulties mean that a proposed new pipeline from Cushing to the gulf refineries (from where the oil can be shipped abroad) will not open until 2013 at the earliest. Attempts to shift the oil by road and rail have made only a small dent in rising inventories.

与此同时其它地区情况也出现了变化，在2月，从加拿大拥有含油砂的地区连通了一条新的石油管道，而北达科他的巴肯地区的页岩油的大量供应也超过了人们预期，而且都正巧赶上美国的石油需求不旺。同时由于在规划方面出现了困难，使得原本提议在库欣与墨西哥湾的炼油厂（从那可以将石油运往海外）之间建一条新的石油管道最早也要到2013年才能完工。至于尝试通过公路和铁路来进行石油运输，对于正不断增加的石油库存来说也只是杯水车薪。

Meanwhile recent maintenance shutdowns in the North Sea have worsened already declining supplies from a geing fields of Brent crude. Brent’s ready access to seaborne markets means that its price is far more sensitive to booming demand in China and elsewhere. Hence the spread with WTI in recent months (see chart).

同时最近北海油田的停工维护也使得布伦特原油这片开采已久，原本已经供应量下降的油田更加雪上加霜。而且由于布伦特原油可以直接通过海上运输运往其它市场，使得它的价格能够更加灵敏地反映出中国以及其它市场对于石油旺盛的需求。所以布伦特原油与德克萨斯轻质原油在最近几个月出现了价差（见图）

Over the past few days another, m ore mysterious spread has opened up. The price of Louisiana light and sweet (LLS), an oil grade that feeds America’s gulf refineries, has detached from Brent too, selling at around $4 a barrel less rather than its usual premium of a dollar or so.

但没过几天，路易斯安娜轻油（LLS）的价格也开始与布伦特原油价格出现了偏离，其价格比布伦特原油价格低大致4美元每桶，而不是通常贵1美元左右。路易安那轻油是输往美国墨西哥湾炼油厂原油的一种，其与布伦特原油的价差的扩大显得更加令人难以解释。

Even as WTI and Brent took different tacks, LLS and Brent had remained in lockstep. The reasons for the new divergence are hotly debated. Analysts at Goldman Sachs offer several theories, including a shortage of this grade of oil in Europe (it is of similar quality to absent Libyan supplies) and a general redirection of crude to booming Asia, without any corresponding rise in demand for LLS.

因为在西德克萨斯轻质原油与布伦特原油出现价格不同时，路易斯安娜轻油的价格与的布伦特原油价格还是保持同步的。关于出现这种价差的原因也众说纷纭。高盛的分析师对此提出了几种出现价差的原因，包括虽然路易斯安娜轻油在欧洲的供应短缺（路易斯安那轻油品质与暂停供应的利比亚产的石油相近）但是需求旺盛的亚洲市场普遍改用了其它地区的原油，使得对于路易斯安娜轻油方面的需求并没有相应的增加。

These price differences matter to businesses such as airlines, which hedge exposure to shifting oil prices. Long-dated futures markets for jet fuel are highly illiquid. Much of the hedging is carried out with WTI contracts but the actual fuel is mainly refined from pricier oils. Commodities funds that hold WTI are also scratching their heads over what to do about buying and selling an oil that no longer reflects the wider global market.

一些行业如航空业由于受石油的价格差影响较大，都会采取套期保值的方法对冲石油价格变动带来的金融风险。由于针对喷气燃料的远期期货市场流动性不佳，绝大多数的套期保值交易都是以西德克萨斯轻质原油期货合约为交易标的的。而对于已经不能全面反映全球石油市场情况的西德克萨斯轻质原油期货价格，那些持有此期货合约的商品指数基金也不得不对其进行的有关买卖交易深思熟虑一番。

Middle-aged blues

中年的沮丧

The software giant is grappling with a mid-life crisis

软件巨头努力应对中年危机

COMPARED with IBM, Microsoft is a mere stripling. Founded in 1975, it rose swiftly to dominate the world of personal computing with its Windows operating system and Office suite of word-processing and other productivity tools. But the company is now showing some worrying signs of middle-age fatigue. In particular, it is struggling to find a growth strategy that will enthuse disgruntled shareholders.

与IBM相比，微软纯属一后生。1975年成立后，微软发展迅速，以其Windows操作系统、文字处理软件Office组件以及其它开发工具占领了个人计算机世界。然而，现在微软却显示出一些中年疲倦的迹象。特别是，微软正致力于寻找增长策略，好让不悦的股东们高兴起来。

Grumbles are understandable. Since Steve Ballmer took over from Bill Gates as chief executive in 2000, Microsoft’s share price has languished and the company has lost its reputation as a tech trend-setter. It has been left behind in hot areas such as search and social networking by younger companies, some of which love to thumb their noses at their older rival. Eric Schmidt, the executive chairman of Google, recently proclaimed that leadership in the tech world had passed from Microsoft and others to a “Gang of Four” fast-growing, consumer-oriented businesses: Google, Apple, Amazon and Facebook.

各种抱怨可以理解。自2000年史蒂夫·鲍尔默接替比尔·盖茨以来，微软的股票就萎靡不已，微软也失去了技术潮流领跑者的名声。在如搜索、社交网络等一些热门领域，微软被年轻公司甩在身后，不时还被这些公司嗤之以鼻。谷歌首席执行官埃里克·施密特（Eric Schmidt）最近声称，技术领域的领导权已经从微软和其他公司手中交接到快速增长的、基于用户的”四人帮“企业：谷歌、苹果、亚马逊和脸谱。

Few would quibble with that. The question is: what, if anything, can Microsoft do to change it? In at least some respects, the company appears to be suffering from similar ailments to those that laid IBM low before Lou Gerstner was hired in 1993 to get it back on its feet. These include arrogance bred of dominance of a particular area—mainframe computers at IBM, personal computers at Microsoft—and internal fiefs that hamper swift change. For instance, the division that champions cloud computing must deal with one that is the cheerleader for Windows, which is likely to want computing to stay on desktops for as long as possible to maximise its own revenues.

没有人对施密特的观点吹毛求疵。问题在于，微软能为改变现状做些什么（如果它愿意的话）？至少在某些方面，如因对特殊领域（IBM的大型计算机，微软的个人电脑）的优势而滋生的傲慢，以及阻碍迅速发生转变的内部山头主义，微软正重蹈IBM的覆辙——IBM直到1993年雇佣路易·郭士纳（LouGerstner）后才重整旗鼓。举例来说，支持云计算的部门必须应对视窗的拥趸——他们很可能希望“计算”驻留在台式机上越久越好，以获取自身最大收益。

As IBM’s experience shows, rejuvenation in the tech world is possible. And some observers see encouraging glimmers of progres s at Microsoft. Sarah Rotman Epps of Forrester, a research firm, reckons that Windows 8, a for thcoming version of Microsoft’s operating system, could be a serious competitor to Google’s Android on tablet computers if the company can get it to market next year. Microsoft is also in far better shape financially than IBM was at its nadir, so it can afford to splash out on acquisitions such as its recent $8.5 billion purchase of Skype, an internet-phone and video-calling service.

正如IBM 的经历显示的那样，在技术领域焕发第二春完全可能。一些观察家看到微软鼓舞人心的进步曙光。研究公司福里斯特（Forrester）的萨拉·罗特曼·伊普斯估计，如果微软下一代操作系统Windows 8明年能够进入市场，将对谷歌用在平板电脑上的安卓系统构成严重挑战。微软的财政状况也远比谷底时期的IBM要好，所以，近期还能拿出85亿美元天价收购skype（网络电话和视频呼叫服务公司）

That bet and an alliance with Nokia in mobile phones (putting the phone version of Windows into the big but troubled Finnish firm’s devices) show that Microsoft is trying to bulk up in promising areas. Yet sceptics worry that such initiatives are not the product of an overarching strategic vision, but are instead tactical moves designed to placate critics who fear Microsoft is drifting downwards. David Einhorn, a prominent hedge-fund manager whose fund holds shares in Microsoft, has publicly called for a change at the top of the firm, arguing that Mr Ballmer is “stuck in the past”. So far, the company’s board, chaired by Mr Gates, has backed its chief executive. But if IBM’s history is a guide, Microsoft may yet end up jettisoning its leader.

收购skype、与诺基亚移动手机的联姻——将手机版视窗系统投入大而陷入困境的芬兰公司产品，都显示出微软正试着向有前途的领域进军。然而怀疑派们还是担心，微软的这一策略只是权宜之计，实际上只是为了抚慰那些担心微软正在走下坡路的人们。在微软持有股份的著名对冲基金经理

人大卫·爱因霍恩（David Einhorn）公开呼吁微软高层换帅，称鲍尔默“固步自封”。到目前为止，由比尔·盖茨主持的董事会依然支持微软首席执行官。不过，若以IBM为鉴的话，微软最终必然换帅。

American economic policy

美国经济政策

Running out of road

经济脱轨

Although America’s recovery from recession is disappointingly slow, policymakers doubt the merits of another monetary or budgetary push

虽然美国从衰退中复苏缓慢地令人失望，政策制定者怀疑其它货币或预算刺激的优点

THIS month America will reach two economic milestones. The Federal Reserve’s “quantitative easing”, or QE—loosening monetary policy by buying bonds with newly created money—will draw to a close. And the recovery QE was designed to spur will reach its second anniversary.

这个月，美国将努力争取两项经济里程碑。美联储的“量化宽松”政策，或QE---通过用新造的货币来购买债券而放宽货币政策---将渐近尾声。策划用来刺激经济的“量化宽松”政策（QE）恢复将达到两周年。

Yet no one will be celebrating at next week’s meeting of the Fed, where officials are almost certain to reiterate that the $600 billion programme of bond purchases will end this month. For all the monetary and fiscal stimulus applied to the economy, the recovery has been a disappointment. Though the chance of renewed recession is slim, in a dreary rerun of last year a promising acceleration in hiring and spending is fizzling.

然而，没有人会在美联储下周会议上对两周年进行纪念，而官员往往肯定会重申债券购买的6000亿美元计划将于这个月底结束。因为所有应用于经济的货币和财政刺激计划，经济复苏一直使大家失望异常。虽然再度衰退的可能性很小，但是，去年承诺在雇佣和消费方面加速方面令人沮丧的重演以失败而告终。

Since recession ended in June 2009, GDP growth has averaged 2.8%, roughly its long-term trend. After so deep a slump, the pace is usually much faster. The gap between actual and potential GDP has been stuck at around 5% since late 2009 (see chart 1). From some angles, the picture is even worse. Measured by totting up income rather than spending, the economy is no bigger than in 2006. The proportion of working-age people with jobs is lower than in the trough of the recession.

自2009年6月金融危机结束以来，国内生产总值增长达到平均2.8%, 大体上是其长期趋势。经历这么严重的衰落之后，通常这速度要快得多。实际国内生产总值和潜在国内生产总值之

间的差距自2009年底以来一直困在了5%左右（见图表1）. 从某些角度来讲，情况甚至更糟糕。通过合计收入而不是消费来计算，现在的经济相比于2006年大不了多少。有工作的工薪阶层人口的比例还是低于经济衰退低谷时的比例。

This week Larry Summers, who until December was Barack Obama’s chief economic adviser, gave warning that America was halfway through a lost decade similar to Jap an’s in the 1990s. Back then American policymakers were keen to lecture the Japanese on how to escape their predicament. Tim Geithner, then a Treasury official and now the Treasury secretary, would press his Japanese counterparts for more fiscal stimulus. Ben Bernanke, then an academic and now the Fed’s chairman, called the Bank of Japan’s failure to cure deflation a case of “self-induced paralysis”.

直至十二月还是巴拉克?奥巴马（Barack Obama）的首席经济顾问的拉里?萨默斯（Larry Summers）这个星期警告说，美国正在经历类似于日本20世纪90年代时迷惘十年的中途点上。那时美国决策者们曾敏锐地向日本人告诫如何摆脱困境。时任财政部官员，现在是财政部长的蒂莫西·盖特纳（Tim Geithner）曾因需要更多财政刺激而向日本同行施压。曾是学者，现为美联储主席的本?伯南克（Ben Bernanke）曾把日本银行未能处理通货紧缩称为“自我瘫痪”案例。

Japanese lessons

日本的教训

Indeed, America’s initial response to its own crisis and recession drew on the lessons from Japan. About $1.2 trillion in fiscal stimulus has been injected since Mr Obama took office. The Fed cut interest rates to nearly zero and then, in two rounds of QE, bought $2.3 trillion of government and mortgage-backed bonds.

确实，美国对其自身的经济危机和衰退的最初反应借鉴了日本的教训。自奥巴马上台以来，大约已经投入1.2万亿美元的财政刺激。美联储把利率降至了接近零，然后，两轮的量化宽松政策（QE），购买了2.3万亿美元的政府和抵押贷款支持的债券。

But lately American leaders have shown signs of the inertia for which they used to berate Japan. Mr Obama has suggested extending a cut in employees’ Social Security tax, enacted i n December, but most of his, and Republicans’, attention is now given to cutting the budget deficit. Fed officials who enthusiastically backed QE have little taste for more.

但最近，美国领导人所显示出的不想改变的迹象正是他们当初痛斥日本的原因。奥巴马先生已经建议延长十二月颁布的雇员社会安全税的削减，但他和共和党人最多的注意力集中在削减预算赤字。积极支持量化宽松政策（QE）的美联储官员对此不再感兴趣。

Since the Depression American governments have considered it their duty to use macroeconomic policy to reduce unemployment. That duty was codified in the Employment Act of 1946. Henceforth, says Brad DeLong, an economic historian at the University of California, Berkeley, “an administration that failed to achieve acceptable macroeconomic performance was a failed

administration.”

自从大萧条以来，美国政府一直认为他们有责任使用宏观经济政策来减少失业率。这个职责就被编纂在1946年的就业法里。加州大学伯克利分校的经济历史学家布拉德?德隆（Brad DeLong）说道，从此以后，“未能获得令人满意的宏观经济运作情况的政府就是一个失败的政府。”

Later policymakers learned they could not pursue higher employment if it meant fuelling inflation with slack monetary policy or crowding out private investment with public borrowing. Neither is happening today. The lack of appetite for further stimulus has more to do with a belief, particularly among Republicans, that intervention on the present scale is both ineffective and dangerous. John Boehner, the speaker of the House of Representatives, says: “Many of our probl ems can be traced to a misguided belief…that [the economy] can be controlled or micromanaged.” Mitt Romney, the front-runner for the party’s presidential nomination, said in a candidates’ debate on June 13th that Mr Obama “didn’t create the recession, but he made it worse and longer.”

后来，政策制定者们了解到，假如这意味着用不景气的货币政策刺激通货膨胀或用公共借款排挤私人投资的话，他们就不能追求更高的就业率。现在这两项没有一项发生。对进一步刺激缺乏欲望同一种信念有着极大的关系，特别是共和党人。在目前范围内的干预既无效又危险。众议院议长约翰?博納（John Boehner）说道：“我们的许多问题可以追溯到一个错误的信念...就是经济能被控制或微观管理。”该党总统候选人提名的竞争领先者米特?罗尼（Mitt Romney）说道，在6月13日的候选人辩论中，奥巴马先生“没有创造经济衰退，但他使得经济衰退越来越糟糕而且延续时间越来越长。”

Those views have won academic backing from John Taylor, an economist at Stanford University. Mr Taylor traces the economy’s ailments to the abandonment of predictable, rules-based fiscal and monetary policies. The bail-outs and stimulus of George Bush junior and Mr Obama, and the Fed’s emergency lending and QE, he argues, sowed paralysing uncertainty. He believes that deep spending cuts would reverse this effect and thus generate private spending and growth.

那些观点获得了斯坦福大学的经济学家约翰?泰勒（John Taylor）的学术支持。泰勒先生从查考经济小病到可断言的,以原则为基础的财政和货币政策的放弃。他认为，小乔治?布什和奥巴马总统的紧急援助和财政刺激以及美联储的紧急贷款和量化宽松政策（QE）激起了经济瘫痪的不确定性。他相信削减深层次开支将彻底改变这种影响并因此引起私人消费和经济增长。

For this there is only tenuous empirical support when interest rates are close to zero. A stronger case against further fiscal easing comes from Carmen Reinhart of the Peterson Institute. In the 15 crises she studied with her husband, Vincent Reinhart of the American Enterprise Institute, policy responses varied widely but the result did not: prolonged, subpar growth. The reason was that the crises had a common cause: excessive debt that could be corrected only by a long period of deleveraging. American households have made a start on this, but their debts are still far above the pre-2000 trend (see chart 2). Mrs Reinhart thinks more fiscal stimulus merely postpones the

necessary adjustment, because it replaces private debt with even greater public borrowing.

对于这一点，当利率接近零时，只有微弱的经验方面的支持。一个强有力的事例反对进一步财政宽松政策来自彼得森研究所的卡门?莱因哈特（Carmen Reinhart）。在她与美国企业研究所工作的丈夫文森特?莱因哈特（Vincent Reinhart）研究的15次经济危机中，政策反应差别巨大但结果并不大：持续时间长的，低标准增长。理由就是这些危机有着一个共同的原因：过多的债务只能通过长期的去杠杆作用来纠正。在这点上，美国家庭已经作出了一个表率作用，但他们的债务仍然远远高于2000年以前的趋势（见图表2）。莱因哈特夫人认为更多的财政刺激只是延缓了必要的调整，因为这只是用数目更大的公共借款取代了私人债务而已。

The euro zone’s sovereign-debt crisis has reminded governments everywhere that heavy public debt risks more than just crowding out private investment. It can, in the extreme, bring on insolvency.

欧元区的主权债务危机已经提醒了各国政府，那就是沉重的公共债务将冒不仅仅是排挤私人投资的风险。在极端情况下，沉重的公共债务可能引起政府破产。

The chances of a Greek-style crisis in America are low, given the dollar’s reserve-currency status, but not zero. On today’s trends America’s debt is rising unsustainably. By 2016 its overall government deficit will be 6% of GDP, the IMF estimates, well above the comfort level for debt stability. Almost none of that deficit will be the product of the economic cycle (see chart 3).

在美国，考虑到美元的储备货币地位，希腊式危机的可能性很低，但不为零。以现在的趋势，美国的债务正在不可持续地增长。国际货币基金组织估计，截止到2016年，美国总的政府赤字将达到国内生产总值的6％，远远高于债务稳定的舒适程度。政府赤字中没有一件事物将是经济周期的产物（见图表3）。

The merits of more fiscal stimulus have been fiercely debated inside the Obama administration. Christina Romer, who was chairman of Mr Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, argues that near-term fiscal stimulus, by boosting employment and income, lessens the pressure on households to pay down debt whereas premature austerity could worsen the cycle of weaker growth and deleveraging.

更多财政刺激的优点在奥巴马政府内已经进行了激烈地辩论。曾是奥巴马经济顾问委员会主席的克里斯蒂娜?罗默（Christina Romer）认为，凭借提高就业率和收入，短期财政刺激减轻偿还债务对家庭的压力，而不成熟的紧缩可能恶化疲软增长和去杠杆化作用的周期。

Since Mrs Romer and Mr Summers left the White House last year, however, the opposite view has gained. In a recent meeting an official repeatedly told reporters that the administration’s focus on deficit reduction was necessary to maintain confidence. This may be as much a concession to political reality as a statement of economic preference. The White House is negotiating deficit cuts of between $1 trillion and $4 trillion in the next 10-12 years to win Republicans’ agreement on

raising the limit on federal debt. Without an increase, the Treasury would be unable to pay some of its bills come August 2nd.

由于去年罗默夫人（Mrs Romer）和萨默斯先生（Mr Summers）离开了白宫，然而，截然相反的观点已经取得了。在最近的一次会议上，一位官员再次告诉记者，政府对削减赤字的重点是要保持信心。这可能更多是作为经济优惠声明而对政治现实的一种认可(承认)。白宫正在谈判在未来10-12年1万亿到四万亿美元之间的削减赤字来获得共和党对提高联邦债务限额达成协议。如果不提高限额，财政部将无法支付8月2日到期的一些帐单。

Mr Obama’s advisers would still like to couple short-term fiscal stimulus with longer-term tightening. Recently officials have suggested extending the payroll tax cut agreed on last December, which is due to expire at the end of 2011, for a year. Mr Summers has called for a cut in employers’ payroll tax, too. Administration officials think either could be part of a package that reduces the deficit over ten years and raises the debt ceiling. But it is unclear whether Republicans will go along.

奥巴马总统的顾问仍愿意把短期财政刺激与长期紧缩政策配合起来。最近，高级官员已经建议延长去年十二月达成协议的一年的工资税削减计划。因为这个计划将于2011年底满期。萨默斯先生（Mr Summers）也要求削减雇员工资税。政府官员认为无论是短期财政刺激还是长期紧缩政策都将是未来十年内削减财政赤字以及提高债务最大限额等一揽子计划中的一部分。但是，目前还不清楚共和党人是否会合作。

The bounds of bond-buying

债券购买的界限

When the Fed meets next week, it is almost certain to keep the quantity of its bond purchases unchanged. It will replace maturing holdings, but it will not signal a third round of QE. This is largely because circumstances are less dire than when the second round (QE2) began last autumn. At the time private job growth had slowed markedly and core inflation (ie, excluding the prices of food and energy) had fallen to less than 1%, well below the Fed’s unofficial target of 2%. QE2 (or the anticipation of it) had the desired effect: it initially nudged down Treasury yields, squelched fears of deflation, encouraged investors into risky assets, such as stocks, and pushed down the dollar.

当美联储下周开会时，几乎可以肯定，它会保持其债券购买量不变。它将取代到期的债券，但这并不标志着量化宽松政策（QE）的第三轮。这主要是因为形势比去年秋天开始的第二轮量化宽松政策(QE2)要不紧迫的多。那时私营就业增长已经明显减缓而且核心通货膨胀（即，除了食品和能源价格）已经降到少于1％。这个数字远远低于美联储2％的非官方目标。量化宽松政策第二轮（QE2）（或它的预期）有着要求的效果：它最初降低了国债收益，消除了通货紧缩的担心，鼓励投资者参与高风险资产的投资，诸如股票等，并压低了美元汇率。

Fed officials think that the economy’s weakness now reflects interruption s to Japanese supply chains and higher petrol prices, both of which are fading. Growth, they reckon, should rebound to

above 3% (at an annual rate) in the second half of the year. Core inflation rose to 1.5% in May. If inflation falls back and the economy continues to stagnate, the Fed may consider easing again. It could do this in various ways, such as setting an explicit target for long-term interest rates, focusing future bond-buying on particular maturities or restarting purchases of mortgage-backed bonds.

美联储官员认为现在经济的疲软反映了对日本供应链和较高汽油价格的干扰，这两项的影响正逐渐消失。他们认为，增长应该在今年下半年反弹至3％以上（以年率计算）。核心通货膨胀率五月份上升至1.5％。假如通货膨胀率回落，经济继续停滞不前，美联储可能考虑再次放宽政策。可以用各种方式这么做。比如，为长期利率设置一个明确目标，把未来的债券购买集中在特定到期日或重新启动抵押贷款支持债券的购买。

But for further QE the bar is set high. The benefit would be limited and the costs higher than before. It would complicate the Fed’s job of eventually shrinking its balance-sheet. Some Fed officials worry that its holdings of bonds could lose value when rates rise (though that would not affect its operations).

但，对进一步的量化宽松政策（QE）,限制性规定设得很高。利益会得到限制而成本将比以前高得多。这将使得美联储最终收缩其资产负债表的工作复杂化。美联储的一些官员担心当利率上升时（虽然那不会影响其运转），其持有的债券可能失去价值。

The political backlash would be fierce. QE2 drew heavy fire from abroad, from Republicans on Capitol Hill and from within the Fed. Some Republican senators cited QE2 as a reason for blocking Mr Obama’s nomination of Peter Diamond, a Nobel prize-winning economist, to the Fed. (An uncited reason was revenge for Democrats’ blocking of Mr Bush’s nominees.)

政治的强烈反对将会非常激烈。量化宽松政策第二轮（QE2）遭到了来自国外，国会山共和党人以及美联储内部的剧烈批评。有些共和党参议员把量化宽松政策第二轮（QE2）提出作为阻止奥巴马总统对诺贝尔经济奖获得者彼得·戴蒙德（Peter Diamond）在美联储的任命。（一个没有提出的理由就是对民主党人阻止小布什总统提名的围追堵截。）

Fed officials can ignore politics as long as it does not interfere with the efficacy of monetary policy. However, they worry that the backlash against QE2 may have played a part, albeit a small one, in the rise of commodity prices—by weakening the dollar and funnelling hot money into alternative assets and emerging markets whose central banks have been slow to tighten their own monetary policies.

只要量化宽松政策第二轮（QE2）不和货币政策的有效性相抵触，美联储官员可以对政治置之不理。然而，他们担心对量化宽松政策第二轮（QE2）的强烈反对可能发挥了一部分作用，尽管在商品价格方面作用很小---通过削弱美元汇率和汇集投机资金到另类资产和迟迟没有收紧自己货币政策的央行新兴市场。

With both fiscal and monetary policy near their limits, Democrats and Republicans alike are searching for other, preferably cheap, ways to spur growth. They agree that reducing regulation

would help. Yet as far as getting money and credit flowing through the economy are concerned, regulation is heading in the opposite direction. Under last year’s Dodd-Frank act, banks face new rules designed to prevent abusive and risky lending. A Fed official has suggested that the biggest, riskiest banks might have to hold capital of up to 14% of assets, far above the 7% norm agreed to in Basel 3, a new international accord.

由于财政和货币政策两者接近了其极限，民主党人和共和党人同样在寻求其它的，更低息的方式来刺激增长。他们同意减少监管将有所帮助。然而，只要让货币和信贷流动通过经济而言，监管就会朝着相反的方向前进。在去年多德-弗兰克法下，银行面临计划用来防止滥用和高风险贷款的新规则。美联储的一位官员已经建议，规模最大，风险最高的银行可能必须持有资本14％的资金，远远高于新国际协定---第三次巴塞爾協定（Basel 3）所达成7％的标准。

Jamie Dimon, the boss of JPMorgan Chase, confronted Mr Bernanke at a conference on June 7th, saying that the crisis had already shut down the most dangerous parts of the financial system, from unscrupulous mortgage brokers to off-balance-sheet investment vehicles. “Now we’re told there are going to be even higher capital requirements…and we know there are 300 rules coming. Has anyone bothered to study the cumulative effect of all these things?” No, Mr Bernanke admitted. “It’s just too complicated.” Besides, he pointed out, the priority was prevent ion of another crisis.

杰米?戴蒙(Jamie Dimon) 摩根大通集团(JPMorgan Chase)的老板在6月7日的会议上当面对质伯南克先生，说这次危机已经关闭了金融体系中最危险的组成部分，从肆无忌惮的按揭经纪人到资产负债表外的投资手段。“现在我们被告知甚至将会有更高的资本金要求…而且我们知道还有300条规则。有谁费心研究所有这些东西的累积效应呢？” 伯南克承认没人会费心。“这实在太复杂了。” 他指出，除此之外，当务之急是防止另一场危机。

With fiscal and monetary options being closed off, America’s policymakers may have limited ways forward. But remembering where this journey started, they are in no mood to retrace their steps.

由于财政和货币选择被封锁，美国政策制定者可能已经限制了前进的方式。但是，记住这段旅程开始的地方，他们全然不想重走老路。

from the print edition | Briefings2

印刷版| 精粹2

经济学人科技类文章中英双语

The Brain Activity Map 绘制大脑活动地图 Hard cell 棘手的细胞 An ambitious project to map the brain is in the works. Possibly too ambitious 一个绘制大脑活动地图的宏伟计划正在准备当中，或许有些太宏伟了 NEWS of what protagonists hope will be America’s next big science project continues to dribble out. 有关其发起人心中下一个科学大工程的新闻报道层出不穷。 A leak to the New York Times, published on February 17th, let the cat out of the bag, with a report that Barack Obama’s administration is thinking of sponsoring what will be known as the Brain Activity Map. 2月17日，《纽约时报》刊登的一位线人报告终于泄露了秘密，报告称奥巴马政府正在考虑赞助将被称为“大脑活动地图”的计划。 And on March 7th several of those protagonists published a manifesto for the project in Science. 3月7日，部分发起人在《科学》杂志上发表声明证实了这一计划。 The purpose of BAM is to change the scale at which the brain is understood. “大脑活动地图”计划的目标是改变人们在认知大脑时采用的度量方法。 At the moment, neuroscience operates at two disconnected levels. 眼下，神经学的研究处在两个断开的层次。 The higher one, where the dimensions of features are measured in centimetres, has many techniques at its disposal, notably functional magnetic-res onance imaging, which measures changes in tissues’ fuel consumption. 在相对宏观的层次当中各个特征的规模用厘米来衡量，有很多技术可以使用，尤其是用来测量组织中能量消耗变动情况的核磁共振成像技术。 This lets researchers see which bits of the brain are active in particular tasks—as long as those tasks can be performed by a person lying down inside a scanner. 该技术可使研究人员找出在完成具体的任务时，大脑的哪些部分处于活跃状态。At the other end of the scale, where features are measured in microns, lots of research has been done on how individual nerve cells work, how messages are sent from one to another, and how the connections between cells strengthen and weaken as memories are formed. 而另一个度量的层次则要求用微米来测量各种特征，这一层次的研究很多都是关于单个神经细胞是如何工作的、信息在神经细胞之间是如何传递的以及当产生记忆的时候神经细胞之间的联系是如何得到加强和减弱的。 Between these two, though, all is darkness. 然而，位于这两个层次之间的研究还处于一片漆黑当中。 It is like trying to navigate America with an atlas that shows the states, the big cities and the main highways, and has a few street maps of local neighbourhoods, but displays nothing in between.

13英语阅读-经济学人《Economics》双语版-Go forth and multiply

《经济学家》读译参考（第13篇）：一路繁衍——你知道外来入侵物种吗？ Go forth and multiply 一往无前，生生不息 WHAT makes for a successful invasion? Often, the answer is to have better weapons than the enemy. And, as it is with people, so it is with plants—at least, that is the conclusion of a p_______①published in ★Biology Letters[1] by Naomi Cappuccino, of Carleton University, and Thor Arnason, of the University of Ottawa, both in Canada. 怎样才能成功入侵？答案常常是：拥有比敌人更好的武器。人是这样，植物也是如此——至少，《生物书简》上发表的一篇论文是这么认为的，作者是来自加拿大加里敦大学的纳奥米?卡普奇诺和渥太华大学的索尔?阿纳森。 The phenomenon of alien species ★popping up[2] in unexpected parts of the world has grown over the past few d________② as people and goods become more mobile and （1）?plant seeds and animal larvae have ★hitched[3] along for the ride?. Most such aliens blend into the ecosystem in which they arrive without too much fuss. (Indeed, many probably fail to establish themselves at all—but those failures, of course, are never noticed.) Occasionally, though, something ★goes bananas[4] and starts trying to take the place over, and an invasive species is born. Dr Cappuccino and Dr Arnason asked themselves w_______③. 过去的几十年，随着人和货物的流动日益频繁，植物种子和动物幼体也乘机“搭便车”四处播散，世界各地无意间出现了越来越多的外来物种。这些外来物种大多数都轻而易举地融入了所到之处的生态系统。（事实上，许多物种可能还没有站稳脚跟——当然，人们从未注意到这一点。）不过，偶尔也有某些物种疯狂繁殖，开始企图占领原有物种的生长空间，一种入侵物种就这样形成了。卡普奇诺和阿纳森对此感到百思不得其解。 One hypothesis is that aliens leave their predators b________④. Since the predators in their new homelands are not adapted to exploit them, they are able to reproduce unchecked. That is a nice idea, but it does not explain why only certain aliens become invasive. Dr Cappuccino and Dr Arnason suspected this might be because native predators are [b]（2）

经济学人中英对照Brave new words

Central banks 各国央行 Brave new words 大胆新言论 Rich-world central banks explore more doveish strategies 发达国家央行探索更加温和的政策 FOR four years rich-world central banks have done their best to rejuvenate economies with conventional and unconventional monetary policy. Now, with short-term interest rates still stuck near zero and their balance-sheets stuffed with government bonds, the central banks of America, Britain and Japan are experimenting with a shift in approach: coupling monetary action with commitments designed to alter the public’s expectati ons of interest rates, inflation and the economy. The sense of change is reinforced by the prospect of new leaders at the Japanese and British central banks, and the increasing prominence of several doves at America’s. 4年来，发达国家央行为经济复苏想尽了一切办法，常规和非常规货币政策你方唱罢我登场。时至今日，短期利率依然近乎于零，资产负债表上依然满是政府债券。美国、英国和日本央行正在尝试改变路线：为了改变公众对于利率、通胀和经济前景的预期，他们做出一系列承诺，并将货币政策与承诺相结合。日本和英国央行新领导人即将走马上任，加上美国几位鸽派人物的声音日益突出，使改变即将到来的感觉愈发强烈。 A more doveish stance would entail tolerating higher inflation, at least temporarily, in pursuit of higher output: a significant shift given the primacy central banks have long given to low inflation. Bond investors have begun to price in higher inflation (see chart). But just how far each central bank is prepared to go is still uncertain. 为了提高产值，更加温和的政策意味着必须要容忍更高水平的通胀，至少短期内会是如此：央行长期以来将低通胀率视为第一要务的政策即将迎来重大改变。一些大胆的投资人已经开始以更高的通胀率定价（见图）。但是各国央行的新政力度到底有多大尚不得而知。 In Japan, Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, has used the term “regime change” to describe the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ’s) agreement to raise its inflation targe t to 2% from 1%, and pursue it with unlimited asset purchases. There are expectations for even more forceful action once Masaaki Shirakawa, the current governor, and his two deputies depart on March 19th. Under Mr Shirakawa the BoJ bought lots more assets, but critics said he undercut the positive impact by repeatedly saying they were not enough to end deflation and by restricting the maturity of bonds the bank bought. 日本首相安倍晋三曾以“制度改革”一词来形容日本央行的政策变化。日本央行同意将通胀目标从1%提高到2%，并表示为了实现这一目标资产收购将不设上限。有人预期现任行长白川方明和两位副行长3月19日离任之后，会有力度更大的政策出台。白川在任期间日本央行购入了大量资产，但是有人批评到，由于白川经常强调购入的资产数量仍不足以结束通货紧缩，而且对买入债券的期限种类

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China in Laos Busted flush How a Sino-Lao special economic zone hit the skids May 26th 2011 | BOTEN, LAOS | from the print edition ?Tweet ? Soon all this will be jungle again AT HOME and abroad, China is a byword for fast-track development, where yesterday’s paddy field is tomorrow’s factory, highway or hotel. Less noticed is that such development can just as quickly go into reverse. Golden City, in Boten, just over the border from China in tiny Laos, is a case in point. When a Hong Kong-registered company signed a 30-year, renewable lease with the Lao government in 2003 to set up a 1,640-hectare special economic zone built with mainland money and expertise, Golden City was touted as a

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经济学人双语阅读1

经济学人杂志双语阅读 Consumer spending in Asia：Shopaholics wanted Consumer spending in Asia亚洲消费状况 Shopaholics wanted 购物狂时代该来了？ Jun 25th 2009 | HONG KONG From The Economist print edition Can Asians replace Americans as a driver of global growth? 亚洲人能够代替美国人做全球经济的发动机吗？ ASIA'S emerging economies are bouncing back much more strongly than any others. While America's industrial production continued to slide in May, output in emerging Asia has regained its pre-crisis level (see chart 1). This is largely due to China; but although production in the region's smaller economies is still well down on a year ago, it is rebounding in those countries too. Taiwan's industrial output rose by an annualised 80% in the three months to May compared with the previous three months. JPMorgan estimates that emerging Asia's GDP has grown by an annualised 7% in the second quarter. 时下亚洲新兴经济体们的恢复势头比其他任何国家都要迅猛。在美国工业生产继续下滑的5月，亚洲新兴国家的产出已经回到了它们危机前的水平(见表一)。这很大程度上要归功于中国，此外尽 管该地区较小经济体的生产比去年仍有所下降，但最近这些国家也

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空气污染英国需要采取更多措施来净化污浊的空气 Air pollution空气污染The big smoke雾都 Britain needs to do more to clean up its dirty air 英国需要采取更多措施来净化污浊的空气VISITING Oxford Street, a road teeming with tatty shops and overcrowded with people, is plainly a trial. Less plainly, levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a noxious gas, have been found to be around three times higher there than the legal limit. In 2013 the annual mean concentration of NO2 on the street was one of the highest levels found anywhere in Europe. 来到牛津街，你会看到街道两边布满了各式杂乱的商店，而道路上人满为患。行走在这条街上，很明显是个磨练。不为人觉察的是，这里有毒气体二氧化氮(NO2)测出含量超出法定水平的约三倍以上。２０１３年，这条街的NO2年均浓度是欧洲最高之一。 British air is far cleaner than it was a few decades ago. Fewer people use coal-burning stoves; old industrial plants have been decommissioned. But since 2009 levels of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter, coarse or fine particles that are linked to lung cancer and asthma, have fallen more slowly. The exact number of deaths caused by dirty air is unknown. But in 2010 a government advisory group estimated that removing man-made fine particulate matter from the atmosphere would increase life expectancy for those born in 2008 by an average of six months. 英国的空气比几十年前干净多了。使用燃煤炉灶的人越来越少；老工业厂已经停产。但自2009年起，氧 化氮、微粒物质、以及与肺癌和哮喘相关的粗、细颗粒含量的下降速度减慢了。因污浊空气所引发的死亡人数是未知的。但2010年，一个政府顾问组估算如果将大气中人为造成的微粒物质除去的话，2008年的出生人口人均寿命将增加六个月。 Much of the slowdown is the result of fumes from diesel cars, which were championed by successive governments because they use less fuel and thus produce less carbon dioxide than petrol cars. In 2001 only 14% of all cars ran on diesel; by 2013 the proportion had increased to 35%. (Greener “hybrid” and electric cars have increased ninefold since 2006, but account for just 0.5% of the entire fleet.) Second-hand cars are particularly noxious, but even newer ones have not been as clean as hoped. Many cars that belched out few pollutants in tests produced more when on the roads. 下降速度放缓的大部分原因在于柴油汽车排放的尾气—这为历任政府所支持，因为柴油汽车耗用更少的能源，比汽油汽车排放更少的二氧化碳。2001年，仅14%的汽车使用柴油。2013年，这个比例上涨到了35%。（更绿色的“混合动力”和电瓶车自2006年以来增加了九倍，但仅占汽车总量的0.5%。）二手汽 车尤其有害，但新车也没所期望的那样清洁。很多车在污染物排放测试中排放量低，车在上路时却排放了更多。 Climate change and geoengineering气候变化与地质工程学Fears of a bright planet 地球发光，令人担心Experiments designed to learn more about ways of geoengineering the climate should be allowed to proceed为更好地利用工程学手段研究气候问题所设计的实验应该获准进行下去。SHINY things absorb less heat when left in the sun. This means that if the Earth could be made a little shinier it would be less susceptible to global warming. Ways to brighten it, such as adding nanoscale specks of salt to low clouds, making them whiter, or putting a thin haze of particles into the stratosphere, are the province of “geoengineering”. The small band of scientists which have been studying this subject over the past decade or so have mostly been using computer models. Some of them are now proposing outdoor experiments—using seawater-fed sprayers to churn out particles of the exact size needed to brighten clouds, or spewing sulphur particles from underneath a large balloon 20km up in the sky.发光的物体放在太阳下面会吸收较少的热量。这就意味着如果让地球发一点光的话，受到全球变暖的影响就会小一些。让地球发光的方式，比方说在低空云层上添加纳米级的盐微粒，让云变得更白，或者是将一层薄的雾状物洒向平流层，这些都属于地质工程学的范畴。过去十年左右研究这一领域的一小批科学家主要使用计算机模型，其中一些人现在提出要做室外实验――就是用装有

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【经济学人】双语阅读：政治遗传学人体政治 Science and technology 科学技术 The genetics of politics 政治遗传学 Body politic 人体政治 Slowly, and in some quarters grudgingly, the influence of genes in shaping political outlook and behaviour is being recognized 在某些方面，塑造政治前景和行为的基因影响正在慢慢地被人们所接受，虽然还是不情愿。 IN 1882 W.S. Gilbert wrote, to a tune by Sir Arthur Sullivan, a ditty that went I often think it's comical how Nature always does contrive/that every boy and every gal that's born into the world alive/is either a little Liberal or else a little Conservative. 在1882年，W.S吉尔伯特写的一首小诗-是为阿瑟-沙利文爵士的一首曲子而作，我一直认为，大自然的精工雕作是那么可笑/每个出生到这个世界上，并存活下来的男孩和女孩们/不是有一点自由倾向，就是有一点保守。 In the 19th century, that view, though humorously intended, would not have been out of place among respectable thinkers. 在十九世纪，这个观点虽然有一点幽默的意味，但是在那些备受尊敬的思想家眼中，也并不是一无是处。 The detail of a man's opinion might be changed by circumstances. 一个人意见的详细观点可能会由于环境而改变。 But the idea that much of his character was ingrained at birth held no terrors. 但是，这种与生俱来的，由他的性格决定的观念也没什么恐怖的。 It is not, however, a view that cut much ice in 20th-century social-scientific thinking, particularly after the second world war. 然而，它在二十世纪的社会科学思想中没有占到一席之地，特别是二战之后。 Those who allowed that it might have some value were generally shouted down and sometimes abused, along with all others vehemently suspected of the heresy of believing that genetic differences between individuals could have a role in shaping their behavioural differences. 那些认为它有一些价值的人们发出的呐喊，通常会被持不同观点人们的声音所掩盖，有时还会遭到辱骂，和那些对当时的异端邪说----即个体之间的遗传差异在塑造他们各自不同的行为上起了一定的作用----有些猜测的人们一样受到不公平对待。

《经济学人》英中对照翻译版(考研英语必备)

来源于https://www.sodocs.net/doc/7c12206262.html,/wordpress/（The Economist《经济学人》中文版）和https://www.sodocs.net/doc/7c12206262.html,/（《The Economist》《经济学人》中文版） 11月10, 2008 [2008.11.08] 美国大选：无限期望 America's election：Great expectations NO ONE should doubt the magnitude of what Barack Obama achieved this week. When the president-elect was born, in 1961, many states, and not just in the South, had laws on their books that enforced segregation, banned mixed-race unions like that of his parents and restricted voting rights. This week America can claim more credibly that any other western country to have at last become politically colour-blind. Other milestones along the road to civil rights have been passed amid bitterness and bloodshed. This one was marked by joy, white as well as black (see article). 相信无人质疑奥巴马于本周取胜的重要意义。这位新总统出生于1961年，那时美国很多州的法律都要求强化种族分离、禁止像奥巴马父母那样的跨族通婚、限制选举权利；这些不仅限于南部地区，而出现在全国范围内。从本周开始，美国可以更加自信的宣称：任何其他的西方国家都变得有些政治色盲了。在通向民权的道路上，其它里程碑似的重大历史事件都是在痛苦与血泊中通过的；而此次总统选举则以愉快著称，受到了包括白人及黑人在内的全国选民的称赞。 Mr Obama lost the white vote, it is true, by 43-55%; but he won almost exactly same share of it as the last three (white) Democratic candidates; Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry. And he won heavily among younger white voters. America will now have a president with half-brothers in Kenya, old schoolmates in Indonesia and a view of the world that seems to be based on respect rather than confrontation. 奥巴马丢掉了大约43%-55%的白人选票，这是不争的事实；但他与过去三位白人民主党候选人–克林顿、戈尔和肯尼迪–得到的白人选票几乎相同。同时，他在年轻一代的白人选民中取得了重大胜利。这位新总统有一个同父异母的兄弟在肯尼亚，有老同学在印尼，他的世界观似乎建立在尊重而不是对抗的基础之上。 That matters. Under George Bush America’s international standing has sunk to awful lows. This week Americans voted in record-smashing numbers for many reasons, but one of them was an abhorrence of how their shining city’s reputation has been tarnished. Their country will now be easier for its friends to like and harder for its foes to hate. 这很重要。在布什治下，美国的国际声誉降到了糟糕地步。本周美国选民的投票数量突破了历史纪录，其中原因很多，有一个就是他们对曾经辉煌无比的城市形象已然黯淡无光而感到愤恨。现在他们的国家将会更易赢得朋友的喜爱，而不易引起敌人的仇恨。 In its own way the election illustrates this redeeming effect. For the past eight years the debacle in Florida in 2000 has been cited (not always fairly) as an example of shabby American politics. Yet here was a clear victory delivered by millions of volunteers-and by the intelligent use of technology to ride a wave of excitement that is all too rare in most democracies. Mr Obama showed that, with the right message, a candidate with no money or machine behind him can build his own.

经济学人双语阅读3

经济学人杂志双语阅读：Fatalism v fetishism宿命论VS进口至上说 Economics focus 经济聚焦 Fatalism v fetishism 宿命论VS进口至上说 Jun 11th 2009 From The Economist print edition How will developing countries grow after the financial crisis? 金融危机后发展中国家将如何成长？ FORTY years ago Singapore, now home to the world's busiest port, was a forlorn outpost still garrisoned by the British. In 1961 South Korea was less industrialised than the communist north and dependent on American aid. In 1978 China's exports amounted to less than 5% of its GDP. These countries, and many of their neighbours, have since traded their way out of poverty. Given their success, it is easy to forget that some development economists were once prey to “export fatalism”. Poor countries, they believed, had little to gain from venturing into the world market. If they tried to expand their exports, they would thwart each other, driving down the price of their commodities. 现今世界最繁忙的港口坐落于新加坡-在40年前它还只是英国人驻军的遥远哨所。1961年的南朝鲜靠美国援助度日，在产业化的路上远远落后于他们北面的社会主义邻居。1987年的中国出口额占GDP总量不到5%。之后，这些国家和他们的邻居们靠开放商路脱离了贫穷。在这些国家成功的光环下，过去许多发展经济学家深受“出口宿命说”(注一)折磨的往事被淡忘了。他们曾经相信，穷国投身全球市场并无利可图。一旦他们试图扩大出口，那么穷国之间便会互相伤害并造成他们出产的商品价格下降。 The financial crisis of the past nine months is stirring a new export fatalism in the minds of some economists. Even after the global economy recovers, developing countries may find it harder to pursue a policy of “export-led growth”, which served countries like South Korea so well. Under this strategy, sometimes called “export fetishism”, countries spur sales abroad, often by keeping their curr encies cheap. Some save the proceeds in foreign-currency reserves, rather than spending them on imports. This strategy is one reason why the developing world's current-account surplus exceeded $700 billion in 2008, as measured by the IMF. In the past, these surpluses were offset by American deficits. But America may now rethink the bargain. This imbalance, whereby foreigners sell their goods to America in exchange for its assets, was one potential cause of the country's financial crisis. 过去九个月里的金融危机在某些经济学家的脑海里搅起了新的出口宿命论。就算是在金融危机过后，也许发展中 国家也可能会觉得他们要想采用那种使南朝鲜一类的国家受益颇多的“出口带动型增长”政策变得更加困难了。在这种被称为“出口至上主义”的策略下，政府常以保持本国货币的廉价来激励跨国贸易。一些国家选择把出口收益存入外汇储备，而不是用它们来进口。国际货币基金组织统计出，2008年发展中国家的经常账户(注二)有7千亿美元的结余，这(出口至上主义的策略)也许就是原因之一。在过去，这些结余会被美国的贸易逆差抵消。但是美国现在可能要重新考虑一下

经济学人双语版1

Europe's debt crisis 欧洲债务危机 Spot the pattern 看变化模式 Jul 5th 2011, 18:55 by R.A. | WASHINGTON 2011年7月5日18：55 R.A./华盛顿 HERE'S a chart showing the yields on 10-year Greek debt over the past three months. See the pattern? 本图显示的是在过去3个月10年期希腊债券的收益率。变化模式看清楚了吧？ There's a spike, followed by a decline, followed by a higher spike, followed by a decline to a higher trough, and so on. European leaders keep taking steps to avert disaster, and each time markets are less assuaged. 有个尖峰，接着是下跌，然后又是稍高一些的尖峰，接着跌入一个较高的波谷，如此反复。欧洲国家的领导人一直在采取措施避免灾难，而每一次市场都没有大的起色。 The latest spike corresponds to the stalemate over the IMF's willingness to continue making bail-out payments without a new, long-term rescue package in place (and the corresponding disagreement over how to rollover Greek debt, plus the drama surrounding the passage of Greece's new austerity plan). The IMF agreed to keep paying, French and German banks seemed willing to sign on to a rollover plan, and Greece got its new austerity programme through parliament. But it wasn't long before trouble kicked up again. 最近的尖峰反映了这样一个困境：国际货币基金组织愿意继续救助，但又没有制定出一个长期的一揽子救助计划（同时也反映出如何缓解希腊债务各方存在分歧，以及希腊的新紧缩计划能否通过依然有变数）。国际货币基金组织同意继续提供支付，法国和德国的银行似乎愿意签署资金周转计划书，希腊国会通过了新的紧缩计划。但是，没过多久，麻烦又来了。 Moody's and Standard and Poor's have both suggested that the agreed-upon rollover plan might well constitute a default. Since that's precisely the outcome European leaders were hoping to avoid, this news has sent everyone scurrying to come up with a new and better deal. Meanwhile, Moody's has cut Portugal's debt rating to junk. Portugal may well need a new rescue package, which will surely include debate over the fate of creditors, which will mean more questions about bank finances and more brinksmanship. And the European economy continues to slow, even as the European Central Bank continues to tighten policy. 穆迪和标准普尔都暗示，商定好的周转计划很可能得不到执行。因为这种结果正是欧洲国家的领导人们想避免的，所以这条消息让每个人都急不可待地要制定出一个新的、更好的解决办法。与此同时，穆迪公司已经将葡萄牙的债务评级降至垃圾级。葡萄牙很可能需要一个新的一揽子救援计划，这必将包括对债权人命运的辩论，而辩论的内容将更多的是关于银行财政方面的问题和边缘政策。欧洲经济增长速度持续放缓，尽管欧洲央行继续收紧货币政策。 I don't know that there's any broad lesson here, other than: for all the steps already taken by European leaders, the euro zone hasn't really gotten any closer to solving the underlying issues of insolvency and institutional weakness.