外文翻译---资本流入新兴市场土耳其

中文3200字

本科毕业论文外文翻译

外文题目：Capital Flows to an Emerging Market in Turkey

出处：International Advances in Economic Research, 2003, Volume 9, Number 3, Pages 189-195

作者：Saziye Gazioglu

原文：

Capital Flows to an Emerging Market in Turkey

Abstract

Increased gIobalization in financial markets implies that the percentage of all shares under foreign ownership in domestic stock markets has been rising. Speculative attacks on the foreign exchange market in February 2001 led to deep economic crisis in Turkey.This article will explore various indicators of the financial crisis in Turkey based on a macro-model. The foreign share of the domestic economy is a key variable to establish the degree of vulnerability during a financial crisis. An empirical investigation shows that the percentage of shares owned by foreigners on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) has been increasing since 1995 and is currently about 50 percent of the total. Furthermore,the general index of stock market prices in 1999 was at its highest level since i995.This would imply that the general price index of the stock market is another strong indicator of an impending financial crisis. An empirical investigation of Turkish data based on a theoretical model is presented in this paper. An unexpected capital outflow would certainly cause exchange rate fluctuations, balance of payments problems, and international debt crisis. Hot money inflows boost share prices and keep the real exchange rate high. However, short-term stay of capital implies a sudden capital outflow that creates financial crisis, which results in international debt crisis. This in turn leads to a further increase in loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Relatively high stock market prices may suggest an impending financial crisis. Using Turkish stock market price data, an

impending financial crisis can be statistically predicted. (JEL E60,F32, F34, F36, F40, G15)

Introduction

Much work has been done in the area of financial crisis. Johnson et al. [2000] created a vulnerability matrix using sets of criteria including macro indicators. Other theories of crisis include speculative attacks [ Krugman et al. 1979], and self-fulfilling hypotheses [Obstfelt,1995]. Other works include fundamentals, the second generations model moral hazard,and self-fulfilling expectations models on liquidity. Krugman [1996], Kaminsky [1998], and Kaminsky and Schumukler [1999] referred to these factors as contagions or common factors affecting all countries.Experience shows that short-term capital inflow is undertaken in pursuit of quick gains and includes or comprises speculation in the exchange rate markets. The result is increasing international debt and the possibility of the halving of national wealth overnight, as happened in Turkey early in 2001. Most analyses are based on flow variables alone and ignore the effects of financial crisis on stock variables such as international indebtedness and wealth. Recent IMF papers by Borensztein [2000] and Lane Milesi-Ferretti [2000] underline the importance of linking theory with empirical work on real exchange rates and indebtedness. The possibility of unstable long-run equilibria based on our theoretical model is usually ignored in these studies (whereas the possibility is taken as given here).

The arguments in this paper are based on a theoretical model that is different from others.The author argues that probability of future volatility is closely related to the percentage of shares under foreign ownership in the domestic stock market and the volatility of stock market prices.

This paper is ordered as follows: section two presents a summary of the model. Section three is an investigation into foreign share ownership on the Istanbul Stock Exchange and the forth section is a report on the empirical results. Section five concludes.

Theoretical Model

The model is based on Gazioglu [2001] and Gazioglu and McCausland [2001; 2002], with a profit maximizing firm and a representative domestic consumer maximizing time separable utility functions IObstfeld and Rogoff, 1995; Ramse~% 1928]. Following Obstfeld and Rogoff [1995], the stock market constraint is as follows:

V d X d=X d V d+X d D d

Equation (1) states 1 that a change in the proportion (X d) of the value of domestic firms 2 that domestic individuals own (that is, shares: the value of domestic claims to the total future profits of domestic firms, V d), X d V d, is equal to the domestic proportion of the change in the stock market valuation of these shares, X d V d plus their proportion of dividends, X d V d.

The balance of payments constraint is:

H=∏-T+H(1+ê/e)(1+R f)

The aggregate constraint of the stock market and net accumulation of foreign assets, -H,can only be accumulated by running a trade surplus, where H is the foreign owned share of domestic dividends minus the domestic owned share of foreign dividends and H=∏-T+H(1+ê/e)(1+R f)is any capital gain from holding foreign money in terms of foreign goods (a simple representation can be found in Gazioglu [1996], where external balance is also equal to internal balance):

In essence, therefore, the right hand side of the constraint represents net domestic income (factor earmngs, net interest from asset holdings, and return on shares) minus consumption (private and investment), reflected by the saving (net wealth accumulation) on the left hand side. It is the combination of the stock market constraint, following Obstfeld and Rogoff [1995] and Net International Debt [Gazioglu and McCausland, 2000; 2001; 2002]. If the percentage of shares under foreign ownership in the domestic stock market increases, debt in the domestic economy increases, which is analogous to selling the family silver. It would seem the

domestic economy is very sensitive to the level of foreign investment in the stock market. How severely a foreign shock affects the domestic market will be directly related to the percentage of shares under foreign ownership. The bigger the share of foreign investors in the domestic stock market, the greater the vulnerability of the domestic economy. The Asian crisis can be considered to be in this category. Whether other emerging financial markets become similarly vulnerable depends, likewise, on the percentage of shares under foreign ownership in the domestic market.

The dynamics of the whole system may be summarized 3 in matrix form by:

where the signs of the elements of the matrix are, from the discussion above: E E＞0，

E H ＜0，E

V

＞0 and E

K

＜0；H

E

＜0，H

H

＜0，H

V

＜0 and H

K

＞0；V

E

＜0，V

H

＞0，V

V

＜0，

and V

K

＞0。The dynamic model is now complete and empirical analysis will follow in the next section. The model has two stable equilibria and one unstable equilibrium. Gaziogln and McCausland [2000; 2001; 2002] show that having a high percentage of shares under foreign ownership has an asymmetrical effect on exchange rate and on international indebtedness during inflows and outflows. Unstable equilibrium is the term used when a country has to borrow in order to make its debt repayments. The empirical work uses the dynamic variables of real exchange rate, real stock market index, and foreign capital flows. Ghosh [2000] used only the real exchange rate and real stock market index to find out the direction of causality. The causality tests show that the order of the variables is as follows: capital flows (FORNFLP), stock market index (STOCKP), and real exchange rate (EXCCPI).

Foreign Share in Istanbul Stock Market (ISM)

One of the main aims of this paper is to argue that the percentage of shares under foreign ownership in any domestic stock market is a key indicator of vulnerability in the domestic stock market. The theoretical macro-model includes the dynamics of this important indicator. As a case study in Turkey, data from the Istanbul Stock Market (ISM) is used. It is worth noting that liberal foreign exchange policies have applied

since 1989, so foreign investors are free to buy and sell in the ISM, as much as they wish.

Foreign portfolio investment in the Istanbut Stock Market (ISM or IMKB) increased from $33,654 million in 1996 to $83,069 million in 1999 and to $111,157 million in 2000. Since 1996, the level of foreign investment has been growing very rapidly. Furthermore, the percentage of shares owned by foreign investors is around 50 percent of the total market. This is quite high. No figures were available for foreign portfolio investment levels before 1995.

Structured VAR Approach

The daily data is extracted from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) data stream for the period 01/01/1990 - 11/26/1999. Other stock market data is taken from Istanbul Stock Market publications. Real exchange rates, stock market prices, and international debt variables are used in order to relate it to the theory. This theory shows the possibility of unstable equilibrium when the share of foreign investment in the economy is high. A Structural V AR model was adopted as it overcomes the identification problem of the V AR estimation. The author's contribution is to add a full macro-model behind the econometric analysis.

Stationarity and Co-integration Tests

The stationarity of all variables is tested. The data was divided into sub-periods using Romers’ Narrative V AR Approach. The whole period (from 01/01/90 - 11/26/99) and the crisis period (from 11/26/95 - 11/26/99) were investigated separately. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) tests with and without a linear trend for the data in levels and first differences are reported in Table 1. The hypothesis of unit root cannot be rejected for two of the variables. Both real exchange rate (EXCCP) and stock market values (STOCKP) are rejected to be I(0) without the trend. However, real exchange rates (EXCCPI) and real stock market returns (STOCKP) with the trend variables have no unit roots within the 5 percent confidence for both the entire and the final periods. For foreign capital flows (FORNFLP), the null hypotheses having a unit root for even a i percent confidence interval is rejected. Note that FORNFLP is the

first difference of debt (DDEBT). One needs to take the first difference of (EXCCPI) and (STOCKP) in order to make all data series stationary.

TABLE 1

Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Test

Critical values (no trend) for 1 percent, 5 percent and 10 percent are -3.436, -2.863, and-2.568 respectively. Critical values with trend for 1 percent (***), 5 percent (**), and 10 percent (*) are -3.97, -3.116, and -3.13 respectively.

The long-term relationships derived from macroeconomic theory are based on production, consumption, interest parity and external balances. The Johanson estimation was used with the assumption of quadratic deterministic trends in the data. Eigen values of the variables are the following with 20 lags 4 (one month).

Tables 1 and 2 report on Eigen value tests for sample periods (one from 01/01/90 -11/26/1999 and another from 10/26/1995 - 11/26/1999). The resultshshow that the rank of the co-integrating vector is at most two. This implies that there are two co-integrating vectors and one stochastic trend. The author reports the two co-integrating vectors in normalized form. Since the three variables do not have a co-integrating relationship, the disturbances are not stationary.

Possibility of instability has been established in the theoretical section. Here we have the empirical results, which can indicate instability. This can be done by coefficients of the normalized co-integrating vectors, which are greater than unity. For the entire sample period the effect of capital outflows on the real exchange rate change is a 12 percent increase, implying depreciating Turkish currency against the dollar, as in Table 1. A 42 percent rise in stock market prices for a unit increase of capital inflows can also be observed. During the crisis period 1995-99, a one percent

increase in capital inflows led to appreciation of 44 percent (or preventing further depreciation) in the real exchange rate and a 123 percent increase in the stock market prices (Table 2). Overvaluing in the stock market might have been interpreted as a sign of impending future exchange rate crisis, with reversal of the capitalflows (that is, outflows of capital).This is exactly what happened in November 2000 and February 2001.

译文：

资本流入新兴市场土耳其

摘要：金融市场全球化的发展意味着，在国内股市外资持股占所有股份的比例一直在上升。在2001年2月投机性攻击对深土耳其的外汇市场造成了严重的经济危机。本文将在宏观经济模型的基础上探讨在土耳其各项金融危机时的指标。国内经济的外资股是一个关键变量，建立在金融危机期间稳定程度的脆弱性上。一个实证调查显示，在伊斯坦布尔证券交易所（ISE）的外国人拥有股份的百分比自1995年以来不断上升，目前约占总数的百分之五十。此外，股票的市场价格总指数子1995年以来到1999年处在了最高水平。这意味着，股票市场的股价指数是另一个迫使金融危机发生的强劲指标。在理论模型的基础上土耳其经过数据的实证调查，提出了研究结论。即一个意外的资本流出肯定会导致汇率的波动，国际收支问题，以及国际债务危机。热钱流入会推动股票价格和实际汇率的提高。不过，短期逗留的资本意味着资本可能会突然外流导致造成金融危机，国际债务危机的结果。这反过来又导致要在从国际货币基金（IMF）贷款进一步增加。相对来说处于高位股票市场价格可能会暗示着一个迫近的金融危机。使用土耳其股票市场价格的数据，一个迫近的金融危机能够被预测。

1.简介

在金融危机的地区人们已经做了许多工研究，包括约翰逊等人。他们（2000）利用宏观经济指标创建了自回归模型。其他危机理论：危机包括外部事件冲击[克鲁格曼等人.，1979]，内部变量的假设[Obstfelt，1995]。其他研究还包括二元回国模型，和自身流动性引起的内部变量模型。克鲁格曼[1996]，Kaminsky[1998]，和Kaminsky与Schumukler[1999]被称为影响到所有国家的共同因素。经验表明短期资本的流入是在追求快速的收益进行并包括或包括在汇率市场的投机活动。其结果是越来越多国际债务和国民财富可能在一夜之间减少一半，如2001年发生在土耳其的危机。大多数的分析是在资本的大规模流动因素上分析股市的金融危机，就如国际债务和财富存量减少的金融危机。近期Borensztein （2000）和Lane Milesi-Ferretti （2000）通过国际货币基金组织文件强调其实际中的汇率和

债务相联系理论的重要性。长期不稳定运行的可能性是建立在对我们的理论模型的平衡通常是在忽略这些而研究的（而可能是作为这里给出）。

本文坚持的观点是，国内股票市场股价未来的价格波动的可能性大小是密切与外资持股比例相关的。

本文结构如下：第二部分介绍了该模型的摘要。第三部分是介绍将伊斯坦布尔证券交易所外资股所有权占得比例。和第四部分是关于调查研究结果的报告。第五节是总结。

2、理论模型

该模型是基于Gazioglu[2001]和Gazioglu和麦考斯兰[2001，2002]的企业利润最大化和具有代表性的国内消费时间可分离的效用函数最大化函数（Obstfeld 和Rogoff，1995; Ramse y，1928）。还有（Obstfeld和Rogoff[1995]，股市约束如下：

V d X d=X d V d+X d D d

方程（1）国1，一个在国内企业的比重变化国内个人自己的（即股份：国内声称国内企业未来的利润总额，价值是等于在这些股票的估值变化的国内股市的比例，加上他们的分红比例。国际收支平衡的约束是：

H=∏-T+H(1+ê/e)(1+R f)

股票的市场总额的限制和国外净资产净积累是：H-h，，能通过贸易顺差计算出积累，其中H是外商拥有的国内每股红利和国外拥有的红利即H=∏-T+H(1+ê/e)(1+R f)，就是任何从持有外国短期货币的资本增益（被Gazioglu 1996发现的一个具有代表性的简单案例），外部的平衡都要通过国内的平衡来解决。

从本质上讲，所以该等式的右边代表国内收入净额（收益因素，持有资产净利息，以及股票回报）减去消费（私人和投资），等式左边代表了储蓄（净财富的积累）。它是市场约束的股票组合，以下是Obstfeld和Rogoff（1995）和净国际债务（Gazioglu和麦考斯兰，2000，2001，200）。如果根据股份比例，国内股市外国投资比例的上升，国内经济增长是外债的增多，这类似于出售家当。

现在看来，国内经济对的外国投资在股市上的水平是非常敏感的。外国投资者的持股的比例是如何直接关系冲击国内市场的。外国投资者拥有国内股市股票的比例越大，国内经济越具有脆弱性。亚洲危机可以被认为是这一类。其他新兴金融市场相似的同样因此而脆弱，同样得，在国内市场的所有权外国的持股比例。整个系统可能是动态矩阵形式，总结如下：

以上讨论矩阵元素的具体代表符号：E

E ＞0，E

H

＜0，E

V

＞0和E

K

＜0；H

E

＜0，H

H

＜0，

H V ＜0和H

K

＞0；V

E

＜0，V

H

＞0，V

V

＜0，和V

K

＞0。这个动态模型以下部分现在是

完全和以分析为依据的。该模型有两个稳定的平衡点和一个不稳定的平衡点。Gaziogln和麦考斯兰（2000；2001；2002）表明，在外国拥有高比例的股票所有权在资本流入和流出时对汇率和国际债务的效果不对称。不稳定的平衡是一个国家长期习惯通过借入外债来平衡收支平衡所形成的。

实证研究使用实际汇率，实际股市动态变量指数和外资流入量。Ghosh[2000]只用实际汇率和实际股市指数来找出因果关系的方向。在因果关系检验表明，该变量的顺序如下是：资本流动（FORNFLP），股市指数（STOCKP），以及实际汇率（EXCCPI）。

3、伊斯坦布尔股市的外资

本文件的主要目的之一是认为，外国持有股份比例在任何一个国家的国内股市都是一个国内股票市场的脆弱性关键指标。理论宏观模型包括这一重要指标的动态。在以土耳其作为的案例研究中，来自伊斯坦布尔股票市场（ISM）的数据被使用。这是值得指出的是在自1989年起实施的开放外汇政策下，导致外国投资者尽可能按自己的意愿自由购买和出售在伊斯坦布尔股票市场。

外商在伊斯坦布尔股票市场（ISM或IMKB）的有价证券投资增加从1996年的33654百万美元增加到1999年的83069百万美元和2000年的111157百万美元。自1996年以来，外国的投资速率已经增长十分迅速。此外，该国外国投资者拥有股份的总数的百分之50左右的市场份额。这是相当高。现在没有指标能达到外国证券投资在1995年以前的水平。

4、VAR结构方法

每日数据是采集自国际货币基金组织（IMF）资料来自1999年1月1号到1999年11月26号。其他股票市场的数据采集自伊斯坦布尔股票市场的公布。实际外汇汇率、股价指数、和国际债务变量使用，以涉及到理论。这个理论说明的可能性不稳定平衡的时候，外国投资在经济中所占的份额很高。这个结构VAR 模型，让它去克服了VAR模型的识别问题估计。笔者的贡献是用计量经济去分析宏观经济模型。

5、平稳性和协整检验

对所有变量的平稳性进行测试。这些数据被分时段使用Romers讲诉的VAR 方法。在整个期间（从01/01/90-11/26/99）和危机期间（从11/26/95-11/26/99）分别进行了调查。增加ADF的试验和表1不在不同一层次，第一个数据的线性趋势报告。对单位根的假设不能被拒绝的两个变量。不管是真实汇率（EXCCP）和股票市值（STOCKP）是被其趋势所拒绝。但是，实际汇率（EXCCPI）及实质股票市场收益与趋势变量（STOCKP）都没有无论是全部和最终期限百分之信心。对外国资本的流入（FORNFLP），协议假设为空，甚至自信区间的百分之一个单位根被拒绝。请注意，FORNFLP是债务（DDEBT）第一个区别。其中一点需要采取与第一个数据的区别（EXCCPI）和（STOCKP），以便使所有数据系列是平稳的。

表1

ADF检验测试

参照值无趋势的1%、5%和10%的自信区间的值分别是-3.436，-2.863，和-2.568。参照值有趋势的1%、5%和10%的自信区间的值分别是-3.97，-3.116，和-3.13。

长期来看从宏观经济理论推导出的关系是基于生产，消费，利率平价和外部平衡。Johanson 估计的使用假设的进行二次数据来判定趋势。特征值的变量是20以下滞后的（一个月）。

表1和2个采样周期为特征值测试报告（一从01/01/90-1999年11月26日，从95年10月26日另一个 -1999年11月26日）。该结果显示协整检验的变量最多只有两个。这意味着有两个协整变量和一个随机趋势。作者报告将两个协整变量共同纳入正规的形式。即使三个变量没有协整关系，但也不会存在干扰。不稳定的可能性已被确立为了理论部分。在这里，我们有的实证结果可以说明这种不稳定。这里能通过协整检验来进行分析，看那些是一致的。期间整个样本的资本外流对实际汇率的变动的影响是增加了百分之十二，这意味着土耳其对美元贬值的货币，如表1。一个股票的市场价格百分之42的资本流入增加也可以被观测到。在1995-99的危机期间，资本流入每增加一个百分点，导致实际汇率（或防止进一步贬值）升值百分之44，在股市的价格（见表2）增加123个百分点。股市的高估可能被解释为一个即将到来的未来汇率危机征兆，与资本流动逆转（即资金流出）。这正符合了在2000年11月和2001年2月所发生的。

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