2019年雅思考试巩固预测试题及答案

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Sun's fickle heart may leave us cold

25 January 2007

From New Scientist Print Edition.

Stuart Clark

1 There's a dimmer switch inside the sun that causes its brightness to rise and fall on timescales of around 100,000 years - exactly the same period as between ice ages on Earth. So says a physicist who has created a computer model of our star's core.

2 Robert Ehrlich of George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia, modelled the effect of temperature fluctuations in

the sun's interior. According to the standard view, the temperature of the sun's core is held constant by the opposing pressures of gravity and nuclear fusion. However, Ehrlich believed that slight variations should be possible.

3 He took as his starting point the work of Attila

Grandpierre of the Konkoly Observatory of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. In 2005, Grandpierre and a collaborator,

Gábor Ágoston, calculated that magnetic fields in the sun's core could produce small instabilities in the solar plasma. These instabilities would induce localised

oscillations in temperature.

4 Ehrlich's model shows that whilst most of these

oscillations cancel each other out, some reinforce one

another and become long-lived temperature variations. The favoured frequencies allow the sun's core temperature to oscillate around its average temperature of 13.6 million

kelvin in cycles lasting either 100,000 or 41,000 years.

Ehrlich says that random interactions within the sun's

magnetic field could flip the fluctuations from one cycle

length to the other.

5 These two timescales are instantly recognisable to anyone familiar with Earth's ice ages： for the past million years, ice ages have occurred roughly every 100,000 years. Before that, they occurred roughly every 41,000 years.

6 Most scientists believe that the ice ages are the result of subtle changes in Earth's orbit, known as the Milankovitch cycles. One such cycle describes the way Earth's orbit gradually changes shape from a circle to a slight ellipse and back again roughly every 100,000 years. The theory says this alters the amount of solar radiation that Earth receives, triggering the ice ages. However, a persistent problem with

this theory has been its inability to explain why the ice

ages changed frequency a million years ago.

7 "In Milankovitch, there is certainly no good idea why the frequency should change from one to another," says Neil Edwards, a climatologist at the Open University in Milton Keynes, UK. Nor is the transition problem the only one the Milankovitch theory faces. Ehrlich and other critics claim

that the temperature variations caused by Milankovitch cycles

are simply not big enough to drive ice ages.

8 However, Edwards believes the small changes in solar

heating produced by Milankovitch cycles are then amplified by feedback mechanisms on Earth. For example, if sea ice begins

to form because of a slight cooling, carbon dioxide that

would otherwise have found its way into the atmosphere as

part of the carbon cycle is locked into the ice. That weakens

the greenhouse effect and Earth grows even colder.

9 According to Edwards, there is no lack of such mechanisms.

"If you add their effects together, there is more than enough feedback to make Milankovitch work," he says. "The problem

now is identifying which mechanisms are at work." This is why scientists like Edwards are not yet ready to give up on the

current theory. "Milankovitch cycles give us ice ages roughly when we observe them to happen. We can calculate where we are in the cycle and compare it with observation," he says. "I

can't see any way of testing [Ehrlich's] idea to see where we

are in the temperature oscillation."

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There are several reasons for Europe’s recovering self-confidence. For years European economies had been lagging dismally behind America (to say nothing of Asia), but in 2006 the large continental economies had one of their best years for a decade, briefly outstripping America in terms of growth. Since politics often reacts to economic change with a lag, 2006’s improv ement in economic growth will have its impact in 2007, though the recovery may be ebbing by then. C. GAGGAGAGGAFFFFAFAF

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